Nifty opened a gap up on strong global cues yesterday but strong selling witnessed at higher levels. Slow Monsoon concern among investors lead nonparticipating in markets with swine flu sentiment added.Nifty traded sideways with positive bias until afternoon for a swing of 50 points (4450 - 4500) but later massive sell off in auto stocks made all the way to days low. Major stocks like LT,RELIANCE countered sell off. IT index was firm throughout the session.Foreign investors packing up their journey from Indian markets for time being. Nikkei was injected higher foreign institutional fund among all world markets as of now.Indian markets skipping world markets. Profits have been taken out at all bounce.
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-640 cr) ::: DII (+86 cr)
- Nifty ended in discount -11.90 cost of carry decreased
- Put call ratio Open Interest @ 0.86 vs 0.91
- India VIX closed @ 38.19 vs 40.85 with -6% change denotes market getting stabilize.
- 4400 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest
- DII's where net buyers in this fall.
- FII's where net buyers yesterday except Index options
- US/Europe markets closed negative
We advised positional traders to book profits around 4700 and asked to wait for 4380 levels So is this right area to pick longs lets see technically. Nifty had corrected around 5 % from the high. on the daily chart.so we have 2 probability of trades here in this zone.
1st probability ::
Nifty looks its waiting for 50 % retrace level which pegged @ 4305. If it not holds then final support @ 4215 . So many waiting for that range to pick longs. So we going get 4215? technically yes.
*** -DI crossed +DI in ADX which is strong bearish signal.
*** MACD crossover happened above zero line which is mild bearish.
*** Nifty spot broken another trendline support @ 4485 and closed below that.
So the above technical reasons can be taken to achieve 4215.
2nd probability ::
Nifty bounced exactly from 4380 levels. so will it do this time? let see the probability
*** Hourly trendline support @ 4350
*** RSI2 @ Oversold region
*** Nifty closing above 50 MA
*** Nifty heavily Oversold
*** Nifty still above weekly support
Levels ::
Nifty fut supp @ 4337 :: Res @ 4513
4381 - 4411 - 4440 - 4470
Bearish > 4470 < Bullish
Happy trading !!!!
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