25/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty expired September series near 5000. Nifty opened a big gap down ahead of world markets and then short covering with help of bank nifty helped to recover. short covering seen in banking stocks.Chandrayan Mission successfully found water in moon which is a great milestone for Indian space agency.As result season nearing investors are hopeful to have better Q2 ahead of better advance tax numbers.Foreign institutions crossed 10000 crores in last 10 trading sessions which suggest they bet on Indian markets rather than other world markets which will perform well.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +1,061cr) ::: DII (-616 cr)

Nifty View ::

Nifty expired around 5000,but technically I said it will be above but missed though. we saw a inverse head and shoulder pattern in nifty 5 minute chart yesterday with neckline around 4925 gave some good profits.volatile index dropped yesterday .Nifty october series closed in huge premium.Market might be again a range bound here where we can expect some profit booking from FII side this time.only monthly trend and impulse state not supporting the upmove rest all indicators for good move on upside. Longs have strict SL @ 4880.


Bearish > 4997 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

BUY MAHINDRA UGINE @ 41-40 SL 38 (closing basis) TGT 47 - 50

Happy Trading !!!

24/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened negative yesterday and remained subdued i.e not moved more that 35 points until 2.30 then a big sell off gave swing of nearly 70 points and closed 1% down after 11 strong solid session. Market participants stay cautious ahead of FED meet yesterday where it left the key bank lending rate unchanged. Dow tumbled @ close after FED's announcement. Profit booking witnessed in Front liners. Advances: 10 Declines: 40 in Nifty 50 stocks suggest profit booking @ higher levels taking place.Institutional players are net buyers yesterday.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +1749cr) ::: DII (+500 cr)

Nifty View ::

Yesterday Option data clue getting confirmed expiry below 5000. Again a final hour sell off with huge volumes happened. Traders are cautious on higher side and not participating suggest correction on its way.on the other still smart money from Institutional investors is buying . PCR ratio decreased to 1.68 vs 1.77. Nifty closed in discount with increase in open interest.Nifty formed a head and shoulder pattern yesterday in 5 min charts gave good move.For me market still not in short mode. Expiry close will give some idea.4920 is good support level breaking that will lead all the way to 4880.Safe traders can look for positions from tomorrow. use these dips to buy some FMCG stocks it will be a runner this month.

Positional Picks ::

BUY APIL @ 545 SL 532 (closing basis ) TGT 600 - 615

Happy trading !!!

23/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty Made a new high around 5050 which is a strong resistance zone or atleast small profit booking area. As expiry near markets will be volatile due to rollover to next series. Reliance not participating in market rally is a bit concern. Foreign investors still on buy side. While local institutions remain booking their profit.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +853cr) ::: DII (-539 cr)

Nifty View ::

Nifty as mentioned in yesterday's column breaking 4989 gave us new high around 5050.Nifty fut closed in 10.55 premium. On option side Put Call open interest @ 1.77. 4600 PE and 5000 CE added open Interest suggest we will expire below 5000. But technically I am for a expiry above 5000. We witnessed final hour sell off yesterday with volumes which suggest people remain cautious or unwilling to participate @ higher levels. So much awaited correction in coming sessions? only expiry can tell us. Until that trade light with strict stoploss.


Stock picks ::

Asahi India
BIL
Concor
Gammon Ind
Manali petro
Nitin Fire

Happy Trading !!!

22/09/09 - Market cues & calls

5005 ---------- >>>>>>> One way done

Hi pals, sorry couldn't update Nifty views due to some personal work. will try to continue from here on just with some important levels and intra views.

Much waited 5005 which we mentioned in the blog have been done last week.so that's the area of profit booking for this long run. so where is the much awaited correction? will it come or not? those are million dollar question among investors and traders . the answer is simple follow the trend or FII's atleast. The way FII's injecting their money doesn't seems we will end this bull run here. lets see what gonna happen. This expiry will give us the clue of correction.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +1486cr) ::: DII (-505 cr)

Nifty view ::


4920 is the key level to watch today. Try to go long near that area . 4989 is giving solid resistance. Once crossing that level with volumes will trigger us new 52 week high. on a broader view breaking 4880 will give much awaited correction until 4550 this time. As far as longs are concern trade with strict SL positionally.

Bearish > 4977 < Bullish

Positional calls ::

3i Infotech
Bata India
Liberty shoes
Mother sumi
Relcap

Happy trading !!!!

10/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap down yesterday due to weak Asian global cues managed to get support and remained range bound.Reliance again a non stop thriller on upside making traders to concentrate on it.Banks/IT stocks looks good.FII's and DII's still a net buyers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +239cr) ::: DII (+193 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 3.20 point premium vs 3.25 point premium cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 31.66 vs 31.97 with -0.97 % suggest market getting stable.
• 4600 PE and 5000 Ce added more open interest.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.34 vs 1.27.
• FII's net sellers in all counters except index future and stock option.
  
• Volatility in puts is still higher than calls.
• US markets and Europe markets closed positive.

Technical view ::

Nifty getting strong support @ lower side, though there is lack of participation from investors smart money making it for longers. It will take nifty to maximum. so any change in technical side? nope nothing in this range bound move. As I said before until 4700 holds buy all dips. Pick metal and FMCG in this run. If any1 long in Reliance try to book profits. Intra indicators are highly overbought.SBIN still waiting for our target will be done today.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4789 :: Res @ 4846

Bearish > 4820 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

09/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap up and went near 4850 mark with 4845 as high. Profit booking witnessed @ higher levels.FII and DII both are net buyers yesterday. Our SBIN long recommendation did target1 hold for 2000. Reliance did splendid job yesterday with high volumes,though nifty skipped it totally. So until 4700 holds its a buy @ dips. we will see buying @ all correction dips.4785 and 4825 is the levels to watch out today. Intraday indicators are over bought. Still I bet for 4850 today. Running out of time so will finish here.

Levels ::

Bearish > 4804 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

HEG
EXCEL CORP
NEYVELI LIGNITE
WWIL

Happy trading !!!!

8/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap up on strong global cues and broke 52 week high. Sensex crossed 16000 mark which is 15 month high.Now traders and investors still fears to enter market here which is found by yesterday's dry volume.Nifty closed with striking 102 points @ 4783. FII's finally into huge buy.Monsoon news and G20 summit gave some hope for markets and economy.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +1061cr) ::: DII (+150 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 12.90 point premium vs 15.25 point premium cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @32.21 vs 32.51 with -0.92 % suggest market getting stable.
• 4600 PE and 5000 Ce added more open interest.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.22 vs 1.26
• FII's net buyers in all counters
• Volatilty in puts is still higher than calls.
  
• Europe markets closed positive and US markets closed on account of labor day.

Technical View ::

Nifty made a stunning rally ahead of short covering by bears and fresh buying in front liner stocks.Nifty finally reached 61.8% retracement of 4780 and managed to close above that. So will this uptrend continue? its the million dollar question. And so called TV analyst's now says 5600 in nifty within this year end. so lets see. only Bear trigger as of now is -ve divergence spotted on weekly and daily charts.For me until 4700 supports 5005 is visible. So use all dips for buying upto 4700.So after two days of bulls run we will cool off today.Nifty will try to trade above 4700 mark. If market opens gap up try to book profits in long. Below 4777 Nf will see 4752 and 4734 and above 4797 Nifty fut will see 4817 and 4848. Longers try to book profits @ every rise and intiate fresh longs again @ Breakouts.SBIN gave a Break out of symmetrical triangle will target 1880 and 2000.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4735 :: Res @ 4857

Bearish > 4797 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

7/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty had a stunning Friday recovered with a swing of nearly 125 points.Still market around the kickoff zone 4730 which gets struggle again.So today a Gap up above 52 weeks high will clear the fence this time for bulls.Still I am not seeing any fresh buy,may a short covering last Friday.on Friday both FII's and DII's are net sellers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -400 cr) ::: DII (-5 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 15.25 point premium vs 6.10 discount so cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @32.51 vs 34.11 with -4.69 % suggest market getting stable.
• 4600 PE and 4800 Ce added more open interest.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.12 vs 1.22
• Except Index options FII's were net Sellers in all other counters.
• US and Europe markets closed positive

Technical View ::

4650 Resistance broken finally on Friday which lead to massive short covering.Volatility seen more in puts than call suggest traders go for puts rather than calls.so technically we saw any change still not. Trendline giving support for 3rd time around 4580.Daily and weekly charts long negative divergence spotted suggest trade with caution on positive or long side. If we not close above 52 week high today or in coming days it will be a triple top around this area which will be favor for shorting. Today I feel it will be an important day in Indian markets to watch out.



Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4625 :: Res @ 4767

Bearish > 4696 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

4/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened positive on global cues yesterday followed by swing move on both sideways then remain subdued. Buying witnessed in some frontline stocks. Reliance made a major fall yesterday making the index to close near days low.Nifty closed with a loss of 24 points and below 4600 mark.FII's again net sellers. Gold finally zoomed to our 1000$ target. A close above 1000$ can target 1250$ in near term. so gold looks good investment here.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -73 cr) ::: DII (+382 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 6.10 discount vs 6.10 point premium so cost of carry decreased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.11 vs 34.96 with -2.43 % suggest market getting stable.
• 4500 PE and 4700 Ce added more open interest and both are highest traded volumes yesterday.
  
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.09 vs 1.23
• Except Index futures FII's were net Sellers in all other counters for the third day.
• LIC going to invest 1 trillion in coming fiscal year
• US and Europe markets closed positive

Technical view ::

Yesterday mentioned about head and shoulder pattern for 4580 target,though target has been done its a failed pattern .yesterday volume is very dry. 4650 looking solid resistance for past two days.Until 4681 takes out its short @ rise. Finally MACD @ EOD charts came to sell side. Nifty forming a falling wedge pattern in this fall,with breakout line @ 4610.As said in yesterday's column nifty still getting support from trendline.So again in investors perspective stay light with ur positions. 4561 and 4681 or important levels to watch.



Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4539 :: Res @ 4621

Bearish > 4593 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

3/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap down yesterday followed by smart recovery skipping global markets and remained clueless where to go further. Investors are still away from the market thinking markets look pricey around these levels. IT stocks and FMCG was good in yesterday's trading session. Market taking cues from both US and China, with China as more advantage. FII's again net sellers even more.Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold.As a result the Chinese government seems to be doing its utmost in trying to persuade the Chinese public to buy gold and silver by relaxing the restrictions - it’s now easier to buy precious metals in China than in the U.S. If this continues the likelihood is that China will permanently overtake India as the world’s biggest buyer of gold and silver, while the country’s store of wealth will help shield it against further western economic collapse. The way Gold moved yesterday suggest fall in equity markets around globe going to continue.Its a bull season for Gold which will target $1000 this time.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -688cr) ::: DII (+74 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 6.10 premium vs 2 point discount so cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.96 vs 34.98 with 0.06 % decrease suggest market getting stable.
• 4500 PE and 4800 Ce added more open interest
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.23 vs 1.18
• Except Index futures FII's were net Sellers in all other counters.
• Market turnover was marginally down compared to last two days.
• US and Europe markets closed negative.

Technical View ::

Nifty had no technical change except some intra day patterns. Nifty formed a Head and shoulder pattern in 5 min for a target of 4580.NIfty EOD still holding its Trendline support which comes around 4532.MACD still above zero line.ADX was trendless for last 35 trading session suggest big move coming.Levels to watch is 4681 until that shorts will be added atleast for intra. Investors are asked to go for light positions until we get some clue.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4565 :: Res @ 4665

Bearish > 4622 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!!

2/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened positive yesterday ahead of global cues and crossed 4700 mark again reaching a high of 4747 with dry volumes. Later market tumbled on weaker opening of Europe markets.Sugar and auto sector did well yesterday. Sugar sector performing well on strong demand.FII's again on net sellers with strong sell on stock futures for second day. Domestic institutions are Buyers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -636 cr) ::: DII (+367 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 2 point discount vs 11.80 premium so cost of carry decreased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.98 vs 34.51 with 1.36% increase suggest market getting unstable
• 4600 PE and 4800 Ce added more open interest
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.18 vs 1.24
  
• Except Stock futures FII's were net buyers in all other counters for second day.
• Ford Motor plunged after reporting a 17% gain in total August sales
• US and Europe markets closed negative.

Technical view ::

Nifty achieved our invert head & shoulder pattern target 4730 which we mentioned yesterday.Nifty gave a good hint to book profits @ higher levels yesterday when indicators are not making high with price. Volume is dry @ up move. Volume pattern remembering me 6/8/09 where nifty fall from 4730 - 4350 on hourly charts. so what EOD charts saying? EOD still in no clue. With MACD still above zero line,Sideways ADX, RSI2 Nearing Oversold zone.RSI trendline @ EOD charts suggest some more room to fall,breaking that will be BAD. Today market will open Negative will fill the gap which we mentioned in chart.


Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4540 :: Res @ 4706

Bearish > 4616 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

1/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened Gap down yesterday on weak global cues yesterday lead by china .Shanghai Composite plunged 6.7%, as investors dealt with liquidity concerns and an anticipated slowdown in lending. Recent sharp declines in Chinese stocks have unnerved investors who are worried about whether the major economies can pull convincingly out of recession and validate this year's rally in riskier assets.Meanwhile GDP was released yesterday which was 6.1% in april - June 2009. As mentioned in column yesterday Realty and sugar sector did stunning performance yesterday. Realty will do good rest of the week.Steel sector plunges ahead of bad result from Tata steel FII's continue to be net sellers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -271 cr) ::: DII (+19 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 11.30 point premium vs 5.85 premium so cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.51 vs 33.27 with 3.73% increase suggest market getting unstable
• 4500 PE and 4900 Ce added more open interest
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.24 vs 1.2
• Except Stock futures FII's were net buyers in all other counters.
• US and Europe markets closed negative.

Technical view ::

Finally Negative divergence and RSI overbought conditions gave some relief for bears.Moving averages are still heading up in Nifty Eod charts. Adx is totally flat suggesting that Big move in due and still +DI above -DI suggest Bulls are ruling.MACD still above zero line.RSI 2 Within a day came back to Oversold zone.Nifty formed Invert Head and shoulder pattern on 5 min charts with Neckline @ 4685 will target 4720/30.Market likely to open Flat to negative.4620 is the key support level.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4631 :: Res @ 4716

Bearish > 4676 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

ICI

Hyderabad Industries

Happy trading!!!!