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Friday, July 31, 2009

31/7/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty closed on high note @ expiry day. Market opened flat to negative and rallied afternoon with huge volumes. Nifty rollover was good. IT index and bankex was unstoppable which gave fuel to bulls and Metal Index not done well. Volume was seen huge in many frontline counters.So as we are stepping into new series we need to watch market carefully .

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+367 cr) ::: DII (-287 cr)
  • NIfty future ended 1.50 premium
  • 4500 PE and 4700 CE have more Open Interest
  • India VIX closed @ 37.59 vs 37.33
  • US/Europe Markets closed 1% up
  • FII's whre net buyers in stock futures

Technical View ::

Nifty trading in a channel and 4627 giving solid resistance. Once close above that level will again lead for fresh upside run.EMA 20 giving solid support. Hourly charts are bullish with 4380 support. RSI2 entering bulls zone again. MACD above zero is bullish sign. Decline ADX suggest no strength in market and +DI is abov - DI suggest Market will be sideways with Positive bias until ADX hooks up. 4540 and 4627 Important levelz to watch today.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4519 :: Res @ 4626

Bearish > 4514 < Bullish

4546 - 4564 - 4586 - 4600

Happy trading !!!!

Thursday, July 30, 2009

As expiry day no views. Just trade with Stop loss ans safe traders avoid nifty and trade in stocks.

Happy Trading.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

29/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Nifty Opened positive yesterday and closed flat for second consecutive day.RBI left the key rates unchanged but raised inflation forecast to 5% for the Fiscal Year 2010.As expiry ahead market will remain range bound.Realty surged yesterday when subsidy announced to home loans by finance minister. All Global markets in verge of correction, will India follow that or we have our own way with this result season ? we know after Expiry. As expiry ahead Avoid Market Positions or have tight Stop losses for all your trades.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-59 cr) ::: DII (+448 cr)

  • Nifty future ended 1.75 premium vs 4.50 premium cost of carry decreased
  • Nifty put call Open Interest @ 1.31
  • Nifty 4300 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest writing happening in 4300PE suggest we will expire above that.
  • India Vix closed @ 36.07 vs 37.39 decreased by -3.53% suggest stability in market.
  • US/Europe Market closed negative.
  • FII's where net buyers in stock futures.
Technical view ::

Our falling wedge target of 4600 finally achieved and its getting struggle to cross that range. 4620 is strong resistance which we witnessed before. Technically no change Nifty getting resisted @ upper trend line. Lets nifty get expire we can jump into some position.until that try Intraday trading with tighter Stops.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4525 :: Res @ 4607

Bearish > 4582 < Bullish

4545 - 4560 - 4575 - 4596

Happy Trading..

Monday, July 27, 2009

Dear Readers, I am extremely sorry to notify that I shall not be able to update nifty views today as I am Ill. will update from Wednesday.

Regards,

Friday, July 24, 2009

24/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Nifty as expected not giving up its momentum. Nifty opened strong a gap up of 70 points yesterday on strong Asian cues. And took support @ 4450 which never breached. Auto,IT and metals was top performers. Bharti produced a stunning Q1 results beating street expectation.ONGC Q1 profits drops 27% on lower sales.US housing prices gained.Initial Jobless data still not good.US markets touched yearly high with very high volume.FII's where net buyers and DII's where net sellers.Again saying my old word FII can make up beyond DII's all time.


INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+512 cr) ::: DII (-34 cr)

  • Nifty future ended 11.30 premium vs 6.25 premium cost of carry increased.
  • Nifty put call Open Interest @ 1.29
  • Nifty 4300 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest
  • India Vix closed @ 34.05 vs 37.14 decreased by -8.32% suggest stability coming in market
  • US market end by 2% up
  • FII's where net sellers in futures and stock options.
Technical view ::

When all for sell @ rise only we mentioned here to
buy @ dips which still proved we are accurate. So Today we can expect gap up of strong Asian cues. I will book my positional longs once our falling wedge targets achieved and will wait for next round of trade. So a diamond pattern spotted in Nifty 30 min charts where its an reversal signal if its high or low taken. Another Fibo chart showed how it took support @ 50% retrace.Dont hold long below 4528. So Book longs @ today's run. We can expect sell off in DOW today or coming days.


Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4484 :: Res @ 4585

Bearish > 4478 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!
Top 10 Novice Stock Trading Mistakes
  1. Wanderers get lost. Setting out on your first foray into financial planning and investing without a well-planned investment strategy is like going on a cross-country road trip without a map. Taking the time to develop a well-thought out investment plan (includes your financial goals, personal goals, risk tolerance, available investment amount, etc) will help protect you from trendy, and often risky, speculation.
  1. Passion fizzles. People are fallible and, more often than most like to admit, they make decisions based upon their emotional reactions instead of facts and research. Doing your homework will pay off in the long run.
  2. This little piggy…Novice investors too often forget to take profits from stocks that continue to rise in value. Remember, what goes up must come down eventually. Do your research (maybe using some stock analysis software or an online trading service), read the professional analyses, and take your profits before you lose them.
  3. Diagnosis: Analysis paralysis. Novices beginning investing in the stock market tend to “overdose” on information, becoming easily confused, overwhelmed and indecisive. If you’re on information overload, rely on the advice of your broker (if they offer it) and trusted resources such as Trending 123.
  4. Few Pots of Gold. Don’t enter into the trading arena with a “get rich quick” mentality. While you may have success in trading, the most successful traders know that successful portfolio development is a bumpy roller-coaster ride. The market is volatile. If you don’t have the stomach for it, look for the lowest risk possible.
  5. Enter at your own risk. A common misconception is that “low-risk” equals no risk. This is simply not true. Risk can be managed, but you must realize that it does exist with every trade. A well-researched trade can minimize the chance of a negative outcome, but you are always taking a risk.
  6. Sleeping on the job. Many novice investors jump out of the gate strong, but their initial interest wanes over time. If you don’t have the time, or conviction, to regularly monitor your investment, rely on financial investment services and advice from professional investment counselors. Or, invest in established, well-performing mutual funds.
  7. Many eggs, one basket. Remember the old adage “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket?” It holds true for investments as well. The truly successful investor has diversified investments to offset the ups and downs of the market. Spread your investments to increase profit potential and decrease loss potential.
  8. Rumor has it. Novice investors are too often looking for an advantage in the wrong place. Don’t make trades based upon a “tip” from your neighbor or brother-in-law. Conduct your own research, consult your investment advisor and be sure the facts support the “tip” before you make your decision. Relying on tips alone can get you into financial trouble quickly!
  9. Surplus Shopper. Never invest money that you can’t spare. Yes, you could make a killing in the market and triple your investment; but you can just as easily lose it all. If you can’t afford to lose it, you can’t afford to invest it.
Happy trading !!!

Thursday, July 23, 2009

23/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Market yesterday opened on high note with global cues and strong till noon where profit booking lays in and eroded all gains which index gained in morning session. Short term traders continued booking profits. our support given in yesterday's column was breached.Results of front liners beat street expectation. BHEL and HDFC gavc good Q1 results of more than 20% rise.Tech mahindra,IFCI,Hind zinc have declined Q1.Profit booking keenly seen in IT stocks. Except Index option FII's where net sellers in all future counters.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+67 cr) ::: DII (-225 cr)

  • Nifty ended 6.25 premium vs 4.25 premium suggest increase in cost of carry
  • Nifty Put call ratio Open Interest @ 1.22
  • 4300 PE and 4600 CE added More Open Interest
  • VIX closed @ 37.14 vs 36.59 increased by 1.50% suggest instability in markets
  • Us markets closed negative. Morgan Stanley earnings was not good.
  • Results of eBay as well as Initial jobless claim data today in US. so wall street will watch it carefully followed by world markets.
Technical view ::

Nifty missed falling wedge target of 4600 roughly of 30 points. Bearish divergence spotted Nifty hourly charts .Guppy moving average suggest that its traders who are booking profits not the investors. so until 4227 takes I will stand with my views. MACD not crossed below zero . Finally RSI2 came from Overbought level. Sensex need to hold 14000 which will again start a fresh rally. As expiry ahead market will be volatile.50% retracement @ 4330 level. Today watch for 4430 on upper side and 4305 on down side. Trading above 4430 will give 4482 and trading below 4333 will give 4305. Overall Market may witness range bound . so lets see.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4305 :: Res @ 4482

Bearish >
4484 < Bullish

Happy trading.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

22/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Nifty had a volatile session yesterday and closed negative after 5 solid bull session.Profit booking witnessed in IT and banking sector.Reliance traded Sideways along with index.Metal surges tata steel in particular went up nearly 6%.Nifty closed @ 4469 with 34 point loss. FII's where net sellers finally.so what's for today?

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-251 cr) ::: DII (-7 cr)

  • Put call ratio @ 1.14 vs 0.98
  • Nifty ended @ 4.25 premium vs 7.90 premium
  • Nifty closed above 50 MA (4296)
  • RSI2 @ 76.19 Still above overbought zone
  • FII's where net buyers of 321 cr in futures
  • US markets end positive
Technical view ::

Still we didnt achieved our falling wedge target of 4600. MACD above 0 line,RSI2 for 99 levels came to 75 levels still in overbought zone. On balance volume making a double top around 100 levels an getting resisted and not broken the trendline suggests still buyers in control. on the whole FII's where net sellers but look the money flow of them in Futures they are net buyers of 321 crores. Today nifty need to hold above 4475 for further upmove which will give 4510 and 4550 . 4430 is good support breaking that will give 4404 and 4377. People who missed long or safetraders can look for 4404 to take long. Many are for 4050 now still my charts saying buy @ dips. Many sensing for eclipse effect lets see what market gonna show us. Market will open slighty lower with a volatile session in cards. Shorting here might be a low risk trade still I prefer buy @ dips.


Heatmap of 21/7/09



Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4404 :: Res @ 4520

Enjoy Trading

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

21/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Nifty rallied sharply as expected like as we mentioned in the column. It index gave a good run yesterday.Still people asking can we short @ higher levels, it can be low risk high probability trade but trend is our friend live with the trend. Its a buy @ dips market. And still our falling wedge target of 4600 not done, and also yesterday it achieved our 100% retrace target of 4480 which we mentioned in 16th July column. Many people missed this rally thinking market will fall as eclipse is coming, but as mentioned in yesterday we need to skip that and make use of it. 4600 CE and 4200 PE added More Open Interest suggesting 4200 will give support.FII not giving up they are net buyers ahead of DII's. AS I used to say always FII's are powerful.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+563 cr) ::: DII (+152 cr)

  • Put call ratio @ 0.97 suggest writing in puts.
  • Nifty ended in premium of 7 points
  • Us markets closed positive by 1%
  • Nifty trading above 50 SMA
  • Nifty will open flat to negative
  • RSI2 @ highly Overbought.
  • Advance Decline was good
Technical view ::

Nifty falling wedge pattern which we spotted was successful still 100 points more to its target. If its a gap down I will go long again seeing the trend for intraday. 4528 is a hurdle today. RSI2 @ 98.5 highly overbought level. Here I try to convey some message People think market will fall when its in Overbought. I will spot in the below chart how market rallied when its in Overbought level.So Trend need to checked.4390 Is immediate support in nifty spot. MACD finally crossed the zero line with increase in volume.


20/7/09 Heat map



Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4449 :: Res @ 4571

4464 - 4489 - 4530 - 4556

Calls ::

BUY ABAN @ 944 SL 936 TGT 961 - 977 - 989.

Monday, July 20, 2009

20/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Friends got some comment My column looks more like an essay, from here on let me make as short with more added technicals.Need your valuable suggestions so that I can take the blog further.so as said in last weekly column 4083 acted as a reversal point where I booked my PE and added long above 4155 for the 100% retracement. Markets ended last week with more than 8% gain with an weak start on last Monday. Govt Disinvesment plans,stimulus packages considaration and monsoon triggered the investors to enter.This weeks main trigger will be RIL - RNRL case being heard today in the Supreme Court followed by FII, Q1 results and global cues. Some main results coming this week Wipro, BHEL, ONGC, Maruti, HDFC and even market will eye RIL results eagerly.so what's for this week,lets see.

Weekly charts turned positive closing above previous week's high of 4305.MACD had finally crossed @ EOD which we missed last week charts. RSI2 @ 96.57 which is highly overbought.Rising On balance volume shows buyers in control and resisted around 50 levels. Fresh bull run will start once the line breaks.so lets see the support for this week. Support pegged @ 4227 until 4227 try long. shorts only below that for this week.As RSI 2 oversold People can wait for RSI2 to come atleast 50 to take their position, which will be a safer side positional players.4450 looks strong hurdle on past data's.Mention about falling wedge pattern on friday's column it came true as the price moved the falling wedge target is 4600.Markets skipping RIL is not good sign, need to move along with the leader. Once RIL got favour then catch me if you can. People asking me about the eclipse though I am not much interested on those things still we can't skip it. I will use that trigger to add my long position. 4227 is the key level for this week.



Heat map for friday :::


Levels ::

Bearish > 4297 < Bullish

Nifty Supp @ 4238.2 Res @ 4525

4303 - 4342 - 4420 - 4460

Calls ::

Intraday ::

BUY CANBK @ 275.75 SL 269 TGT 279 - 282
BUY BRFL @ 181.5 SL 178.5 TGT 183 - 185 - 187

Positional ::

BUY AUSTRAL @ 293 SL 276 TGT 308 - 314 - 321 - 328

17/7/9 Call updates ::

Colpal not triggered, Tatacomm done all targets Giving 13 Rs profit, Positional call visa steel not triggered.


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Sunday, July 19, 2009

Dennis Gartman’s Trading Rules List


Some food for thought for the weekend. Trading rules from great traders are always worth reading. If you spend some time to understand the concept behind each trading rule this will improve your trading skills and take you to the next level.

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position…. ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is “low.” Nor can we know what price is “high.” Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed “cheap” many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. “Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent,” according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds… they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect “gaps” in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors are profitable; in “bad times” even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect “outside reversals” after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more “weekly” and “monthly,” reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen… just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first “addition” should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are “right” only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom … and the ignorance…of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market’s wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we’ve learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don’t; and if it is easy to buy, don’t. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidlmayer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the “winning” new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when… and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!


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Friday, July 17, 2009

17/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Market Opened on higher note yesterday on strong US market session. Markets where highly volatile throughout the session. Selling pressure witnessed @ higher levels & buying seen @ lower levels. Both bulls and bears have tug of war which lead to a Flat close. Sensex closed @ 14,250 and Nifty closed @ Nifty closed at 4231 both with loss of 2 points.Metals surged yesterday due to some news on global investors participation.Optocircuit,Adlabs,Noidatoll where 10% up and LITL,STER,IDBI marginally down nearly 6 %. On Option side 4300 CE and 4000 PE added more Open Interest.Mahindra Holidays listed yesterday in NSE. L&T Q1 net surges 3.18 times; beats analysts forecast.Bajaj Auto Finance Q1 net zooms 5.05 times

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+32.37 cr) ::: DII (-35.02 cr)

Cues ::

>>>> DOW closed @ 8711.82 (+95.61) & Nasdaq closed @ 1885.03 (+22.13) ; Europe ends in green.
>>>> Market volumes are up and here if some one look into august series vols are much lower shows lack of participation.
>>>>Nifty July future premium 3.40 converted into discount of 6.55 points so cost of carry decreased.
>>>> Nifty Open Interest Decreased to 2.48 cr indicates long unwinding.
>>>>As mentioned above 4000 PE and 4300 CE added more OI in nifty option side suggest nifty will trade flattish around these levels.
>>>>PCR (put call ratio) @ 1.03 vs 1.01
>>>> Volatility Index India VIX @ 37.39 vs 36.15 increased by 3.98% suggest instability in markets
>>>> Nifty skipping SGX nifty
>>>> US has 3 important results today (CITI,GE,IBM)

News ::

>>>>India's economic growth is expected to be slower than earlier estimated due to lower agricultural output resulting from a delayed monsoon, according to a review by a think tank.
>>>>The collapse of CIT Group Inc. seems all but inevitable, after the company said on July 15 that “there is no appreciable likelihood” that it will get additional government support to help it weather a liquidity crisis. The news sent shockwaves down Main Street. There’s a palpable fear that Washington doesn’t realize the role CIT plays in the economy, and groups, including the National Retail Federation and the International Franchise Association, have been urging the administration to keep it in business. CIT bankruptcy could trigger a cascade of as many as 300,000 small business bankruptcies. The situation led to a recent run on CIT that, in part, contributed to its liquidity crisis. Small businesses scrambled to draw down their credit lines ahead of a feared bankruptcy, pulling out more than $750 million this week alone, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Technical View ::

Nothing changed in technical side. Still MACD not crossed @ EOD charts,RSI2 @ 87.58 Overbought condition. 4187 Not neglected as we mentioned in yesterday's column.Market may move sideways until some bad news or good news comes. Bulls holding above 4230/40 will do better job. Writing option is best scenario for option traders to eat premium.A falling wedge spotted in Nifty a reversal pattern for upmove. Here I like to show two charts. One for bull and onee for bear.

the intention to post the above two charts is for saying that market is clueless positionally. So positional traders wait,watch and enter.Nifty spot support seen @ 4161. Nifty spot closing above 4305 will take bulls inside.Still I feel Intraday is safer bet in these conditions.

Levels ::

NF SUPP @ 4128 & RES @ 4322

4171 - 4207 - 4242 - 4278

Calls ::

INTRADAY ::

SELL COLPAL @ 625.75 SL 631 TGT 622 - 615 - 606

BUY TATACOMM @ 477.30 SL 471.40 TGT 482 - 485 - 490

POSITIONAL ::

BUY VISASTEEL @ 23 - 25 SL 21.55[closing basis] TGT 29 - 32

Thursday, July 16, 2009

16/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Market again opened gap up yesterday followed by strong global cues and remained firm after Europe opens.Yesterday's rally lead by realty and metals through out the session as demand increases in those counters. Followed by sugar,infrastructure,transport.Sensex crossed 14k mark again yesterday with intra swing of 800 points and closed @ 14,253 and nifty closed @ 4233 with 122 points gain. Nifty closed above 4155 level which we mentioned in yesterday's column that we can expect short covering in this zone.Monsoon started in various parts of country giving some boost to investors community.Our yesterday's MLL call was top among NSE up by 13% .On option side 3800 PE and 4300 CE added more Open Interestso what to expect today let's see.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+273 cr) ::: DII (+255 cr)

Cues ::

>>>> US and Europe markets end nearly 3% up
>>>> Nasdaq stocks end up high due to intel's stunning results
>>>> Market volumes are up compared to last four sessions.
>>>> Nifty traded in huge discount ended in premium of 3.40 @ close
>>>> PCR (put call ratio) @ 1.01
>>>> Nifty closed below the tip of 50 SMA (4236)
>>>> Advance Declines improved considerably

Technical view ::



Technically Market bounced from Oversold levels. MACD not crossed, RSI 2 @ 89.29 nearing OS region.As 4155 crossed and closed above that shorts are out from the system. Nifty nearing 61.2% retracement.H & S neckline has been touched and closed above it where the pattern gets failed. Yesterday's gap chart one of the gap filled still a gap @ 3990 - 4015 un filled, Upper gaps are more powerful than Downside gaps.closing abv 4155 , I bet for 100% retacement in the second chart with 4187 as Stop loss.Trendline Resistance @ 4365 . For Intraday holdin above 4168 is bullish below that bearish. Positional buyers can look for MACD cross, RSI2. 4187 is good support in nifty fut, any downside move only below that. In the final chart it clearly seen which is leading the market. Its Realty >>> Banknifty >>> MIDCAP >>> INFRA >>> IT. so clearly shows demand in Realty,bank and midcap stocks. So here I bet for some good realty picks like DLF for short term. 4187 need to take support. Safest play is Intraday.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4162 :: Res @ 4373

4224 - 4250 - 4275 - 4311

Calls ::

BUY SESA GOA @ 212 - 213 SL 207 TGT 220 - 225 Positional hold

BUY SOUTH BANK @ 99 - 100 SL 94.95 TGT 105 - 108 Positionally can hold for 130 target

Positional Breakout stocks :: ATLANTA,EIDPARRY,ONMOBILE


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Wednesday, July 15, 2009

15/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Market opened gap up yesterday on strong global cues. As mentioned in yesterday's column technically its an pull back not an reversal.Still volume looking dry in markets. The Big 'R' Reliance can change market's trend. Many institutions & MF's have downgraded RELIANCE due to RNRL verdict. Still it will be the key in coming days. Yesterday's session some good news came from Govt side & Metro dept which boosts Investor community. Met Dept. yesterday said that the monsoon may make up its earlier short fall with increased rains in the coming days. India needs higher investment to return to higher growth path said Finance minister in yesterday's parliament session,which ignites the later session of market to an new high of 4128. Nifty closed up by 137 points and sensex by 453 points. 4100 CE and 4000 PE added more Open Interest.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+87.23 cr) ::: DII (+200.29 cr)

Cues ::

>>>> Nifty fut discount converted into premium of 1.25.
>>>> US & Europe markets closed flat.
>>>> S&P 500 holding 200 DMA for 6th trading session but on low convinction
>>>> Market volumes are dry.
>>>> Selling at higher levels witnessed.
>>>> Still trading below 50 SMA, but managed to close above 4050
>>>> Asian Markets trading flat to positive
>>>> Two near gaps seen in Nifty fut charts


Levels ::

Nifty fut Supp @ 3996 ::: Res @ 4230

4048 - 4080 - 4102 - 4123 - 4144 - 4177

Today market will trade flat. Intraday traders need to watch 4087 level keenly. Breaking that market will fall to some extent.Close above 4050 will try to kiss 4230 where we can see sell off. Watch volumes,volumes, only volumes from here on. still there is no change in my view for 3713 until a close above 4230 with volumes.

Option Strategy ::

Bear Spread :: BUY 4200 PE and Sell 4000 PE. Low risk Max gains.

Live Calls ::

SELL ZEEL EQ @ 166 - 165.50 SL 167 ZEE BANGED BOOK 50 % @ 160 AND HOLD REST TO COST

BUY MLL FUT @ 50 - 51 SL 48.85 >>>> 10.15 A.M

Sell Nifty @ every rise today >>>>> 10.24 A.M

SELL NIFTY FUT @ 4141 - 4150 SL 4156 TGT 4110 - 4090 >>>> 10.30 A.M NIFTY fut SL hits exit @ cost. Still market is sell @ rise..

BUY SUZLON 85 PE @ 3.75 SL 2 TGT 6 - 9 >>>>> 10.36 A.M

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

14/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Market opened gap down yesterday followed by weak Asian cues which denotes market still remain under pressure.yesterday Bank and IT Index played well. RIL lag to give support to market.IT,Oil,pharma,cement,PSU witnessed buying @ lower levels. 3902 support gave @ yesterday's column acted well for Nifty future. Yesterday's Q1 earnings from Axis bank was better.Axis Bank Q1 earnings rise 70.24%.India VIX closed at 36.58, increased by 2% suggests instability in markets.On Option side 4100 CE and 3800 PE added more open interest.FII's are still on sell side and DII's are using these dips to inflow their money for long term or atleast upto Q2 Results.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (
-559.23 cr) ::: DII (742.26 cr)

So whats for today? lets see. US markets and Europe closed marginally postive, where DOW closed nearly 2.2% up and FTSE 1.6% up. Asia will open positive. With Dow & Asian trigger nifty will open positive. Intraday oscillators are Oversold. EOD chart of Nifty spot was an hammer which has a character of denoting trend reversal. Nifty fu
t was an doji @ EOD .

Things to consider yesterday volume was dry,but last hour made up some good volumes lead by banks and IT stocks. As Said in weekly column Nifty fail to close above 4155 is a short for 3713. Still I feel it will be a pullback rather an reversal. Still I bet for 3713 with bad Q1 results ahead.

Nifty Fut Support @
3919 :: Resistance @ 4012

3942 - 3958 - 3973 - 3988

Trading above 3955 looks bullish and below its bearish for the day. Market will trade with volatile have SL and trade. If Market open gap up above 4000 , it has higher chance of going 3966.

Intraday calls ::

BUY CIPLA @ 267 - 269 SL 265 TGT 274 - 278

SELL ORIENT HOTEL @ 195 - 197 SL 201.50 TGT 192 - 190

POSITIONAL CALL ::

BUY MERCK @ 385 - 395 SL 381 [closing basis] TGT 405 - 411 - 418

Happy Trading.

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Monday, July 13, 2009

13/7/09 - Market Cues & Calls

Asian markets trading mixed with negative bias. Rupee tend to open weak as dollar looks strong against all major currencies. Nifty future discount increased 10 points where cost of carry decreased.Nifty Open Interest increased on Friday suggests shorts have be added more. Nifty PCR (put call ratio) is @ 0.83.3800 PE and 4100 CE have added more Open Interest.Upto 4085 short @ every rise. As I said in weekly column I am for 3713.

Nifty Fut Support @ 3902 & Resistance @ 4085

3947 - 3963 - 3978 - 4009 - 4024 - 4039

Intraday calls ::

SHORT APOLLOHOSP @ 537 - 550 SL 555 TGT 530 - 525 [ ALL TARGETS DONE]

BUY POWERGRID @ 102 - 102.70 SL 101.30 TGT 104.35 - 105.30 - 106 [SL HITS]


Happy Trading.

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Sunday, July 12, 2009

Nifty Weekly Analysis.

As Predicted last Friday Nifty future went to inch of 3950 with support of Reliance , the big giant.Everyone expected an healthy budget,but its was neither healthy nor unhealthy. IIP data have good numbers beaten the predictions. Infosys results was better than expected,still it negative numbers.So whats for next week in markets? lets see now. Before that lets see the fund activity of institutional traders.

Fund Activities for the closed week :::: FII (-4680 Crores) ::: DII (+3663 Crores)

So here we get the clue. FII's on sell side clearly indicates they have some caution in Indian markets but on the other hands DII's where net buyers giving some hope for markets. But for me always FII's have better hands than DII's. So lets see the clues for next week trading.Its result season started so market will trade on caution note.Volume was huge in this phase of fall which indicates markets turned sell on rise. 4155 acting strong Resistance in Nifty future. So until nifty close above 4155 it looks weak.Every one expecting a pullback upto 4150 mark,but for me crossing 4083 will be tough for nifty in coming week. So 4083 is the level to be watched next week. Here I will post a chart have a look.



Above chart RED line acting as support and resistance on past. So now it pegged @ 4136 which will act as Resistance for Next week and support for next week @ 3817. I am for 3713 in Nifty future.Positional traders and investors can skip the market.Market will be Range bound. Second chart says Price action turned Bearish.Until smart money enters market it will be range bound with -ve Bias.

Happy trading.


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Saturday, July 11, 2009

Welcome to Magic Calls

Hi friends,

Finally I have started my blog for Nifty and stock analysis as many suggested. So be here to get my daily analysis in Nifty and have some daily tips and Rock. Spread the blog as much you can.

Regards,


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