31/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty made 52 week high again and closed week above 4700 for the first time.Markets on Friday fell on morning session and recovered afternoon by making new high of 4750.Nifty ended with 200 points gain for the week.GDP data release today which will remain as key factor from here on. Realty was the runner for last week.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +554 cr) ::: DII (+5 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 5.45 point premium so cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 33.27 vs 34.84 with -4.51% decrease suggest market getting stable
• 4500 PE and 4900 Ce added more open interest
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.2 vs 1.37
  
• Except Index options and stock options FII's were net sellers in all other counters.
• Us markets closed negative after 8 straight positive sessions and Europe closed negative.

Technical view ::

Nifty touched 4750 mark finally. Here 4790 is ab next reversal level. Weekly charts made an bullish engulf candle which is positive and bollinger coming in suggest we will consolidate this week.I have marked those type of pattern on previous occasions.option data suggest 4500 and 4900 is the area of trade. Bears are favored only by bearish divergence and RSI 2 @ Over bought level.Those who missed the long can wait for a correction or a close above 4790 for 5005 target.Pick some good stocks @ this level.




Levels ::


Nifty fut supp @ 4676 :: Res @ 4798

Bearish > 4730 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

ACC
Sintex
Neyveli Lignite

Happy Trading !!!!

28/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened negative yesterday as expected and Recovered nearly 60 point swing due to buying in front line stocks. Market was volatile due to expiry. Rollover in September series was there with 71% marginally Down compared to last year.Nifty August series expired @ 4688 a bit closer to our estimated 4700 level. Textile,pharma and sugar sector was top runners yesterday. Tata steel produced bad result make the stock plunge at second half.Total income declined to 47%. Fm gives assurance of food grain sufficiency.Industry minister unveils new foreign trade policy and said 200 billion export target for the year 2011.FII was net sellers yesterday.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -41 cr) ::: DII (+29 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 9 point discount in September series cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.84 vs 36.27 with -3.47% decrease suggest market getting stable
• Except Index futures FII's were net sellers in all other counters.
• US jobless claim data was bad.
• US closed positive and Europe closed negative.

Technical View ::

Nifty was solid holding the support 4650. Nifty showing bearish divergence in hourly charts and over bought conditions are the only factor for bears technically. We are starting a new series today so positional traders are asked to watch before entering new position. Technically week closing above 4709 will take nifty to 5005 this time.Pick some good low level stocks for this run.Dow holding in the grip of bulls skipping bad data. usually September will be low volume month in US markets.Today 4691 will act as reversal level in Nifty future. Today I am expecting nifty trade flat with dry volumes.Nifty again like to consolidate in these levels for 2 days.Our yesterday's positional picks did well except ansalinfra.

Levels ::

Nifty future supp @ 4667 :: Res @ 4728.

Bearish > 4684 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!

27/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened positive yesterday and remained range bound through out the day ahead of expiry and closed positive.Government Data on Infrastructure Made a drag in markets in afternoon session and later recovered.FII's again turned net buyers.US house sales data was much better.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( 379 cr) ::: DII (+129 cr)

Today expiry day trade with caution. Today nifty will set for break out. Again Bearish Divergence spotted in nifty hourly charts,but days near expiry will be operators play so we cant expect technical to work.Nifty likely to expire around 4700.

Positional Picks ::

Ansal Infra
Ashok Leyland
National Alum (NALCO)
Videocon


Happy Trading !!!

26/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap down and took support at 4580 where we moved to new high of the week. Reliance was the top gun which shot Bears yesterday. Domestic funds accumulating reliance despite of SEP1 RIL- RNRL verdict.Short covering witnessed in more September series stock futures. Govt daily coming with good news on monsoon.IT and pharma stocks did well in yesterday's trading session. FII' finally was net sellers yesterday

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-259 cr) ::: DII (+437 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 1.60 vs premium of 9.00 cost of carry increased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.25 vs 1.22
• 4400 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest. OTM Puts have been written.
• India Vix dropped @ 48.30 vs 63.58 with decrease 24.03% change suggest market stable. but VIX was clueless for past one month
• FII's where net sellers in stock futures
• US and Europe markets closed positive

Technical view ::

Nifty opened gap down as we mentioned in the column yesterday and took support @ 4380. Bearish divergence which we mentioned yesterday worked. So what is for today? Again Bearish divergence spotted in nifty hourly charts this time with target of 4580 . Price making higher high while indicators making lower low. Its not yesterday even its happening in small time frame suggest market moving without strength.Breakout in due for huge run in nifty this time which we mentioned in Monday's column. I am expecting that tomorrow. Reliance will lead nifty run this time either way.4656 is reversal level today watch it keenly. Nifty will open flat. Safe traders wait for nifty to expire. Trade some good stocks here.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4605 :: Res @ 4716

4633 - 4651 - 4670 - 4688

Bearish > 4650 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

COLPAL
DALMIACEM
KCPSUGIND
PRAJIND

Happy Trading !!!!

25/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened huge gap up on strong global cues yesterday and remained positive through out the session. Bringing back some confidence on investors community.Realty,IT,Metal,FMCG performed well in yesterday's trading session. Still RIL - RNRL dispute is clueless we need to wait for the verdict @ SEP1. FII's are net buyers again with domestic players.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+712 cr) ::: DII (+275 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 9.00 vs premium of 7.40 cost of carry increased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.22 vs 1.o9
• 4400 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest suggest Unwinding in 4700CE.
• India Vix shoots up @ 63.58 vs 38.51 with increase 65.10% change suggest market totally without stable.
• FII's net sellers in Index options.
• US and Europe markets closed flat.

Technical View ::

Nifty crossed 4600 mark again yesterday and closed above 4650. As mentioned in yesterday's column yesterday's Final hour is crucial for next sailing. Without that I will go short @ every rise for target of 4444. With support to that yesterday price making higher high not indcators suggest bearish divergence.Market will be in rangebound until expiry after expiry we can expect a big breakout.4635 is crucial level today or reversal level for Intraday. Play Intraday until Expiry. 4600 PE will be good bet for this expiry. yesterday our Positional pick AIengineering made 10% .

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4609 :: Res @ 4695

4619 - 4644 - 4658 - 4674

Bearish > 4643 <Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!

24/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened Gap down on Friday on weak global cues and managed to hold 4400 support. Strong buying witnessed in noon session which made nifty cross 4500 mark again, Nifty mad a 38 point loss last week.FII's again on their buying hunt. Will it Remain>? lets see.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (533 cr) ::: DII (+96 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 7.40 vs premium of 2.60 cost of carry increased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1 vs 1.o9
• 4300 PE and 4600 CE added more Open Interest suggest 4300 will not be taken this expiry
• India Vix closed @ 38.51 vs 36.83 with increase 4.56% change suggest market instability
• US and Europe markets closed Positive

Technical View ::

Nifty Took support @ 4385 and made a comeback above 4500 on friday. As expiry week market will be volatile and range bound so trade cautiously. Still Nifty in Range without Breakout @ Expiry day I am expecting a Breakout for next series. Today Final hour will tell us where nifty gonna sail from hereon.4585 will act as reversal level so watch that . Weekly Resistance @ 4670 and Support @ 4419.Today Below 4515 nifty will do 4485/4450. Above 4548 Nifty will do 4568/4585. Safe traders wait for Breakout.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4453 :: Res @ 4618

Bearish > 4415 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

AIAENG
ASTRAMICRO
NITCO
RUCHIINRA
UNICHEMLAB
YESBANK

Happy Trading!!!!

21/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened huge gap on strong global cues and remained sideways until afternoon and made a days high of 4504 and gave up its upmove by strong selling @ final hours. Auto , Infra , Bank stocks was major movers yesterday . Chinese markets where positive yesterday which led markets rally globally. Some Positive news came about monsoon takes investor community some hope. FII's still on Sell side and they are reducing their sell position .

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-438 cr) ::: DII (+489 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 2.60 vs 8.05 discount cost of carry increased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1 vs o.97
• 4300 PE and 4500 CE added more Open Interest
• India Vix closed @ 36.83 vs 40.21 with decrease 8.41% change suggest market in stable
• US & Europe markets closed positive

Technical View ::

Nifty done Positive divergence Target which we mentioned yesterday and made a high of 4504. Shorts will get covered once it close above 4515. Markets in neutral position positionally. It need to close below 4380 or 4520. As mentioned yesterday markets will be range bound in distribution phase.Shorts getting covered. So today nifty on downside breaking 4440 will give 4422/4385 and upside breaking 4467 will give 4497/4515. Market likely to open Gap down.Bearish divergence spotted in nifty 5 minutes. still its clueless market with low volumes. 4350 acting solid support.

Levels ::

Nifty fut Supp @ 4420 :: Res @ 4491

4441 - 4458 - 4470 - 4492

Bearish > 4467 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

Sarapoly
Viseshinfo
Zylog (1 month)

Happy trading !!!

20/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened flat yesterday and remained positive for few hours then strong sell off came which we mentioned in yesterday's column. China tumbled yesterday nearly 4 % down on valuation and liquidity concern.Telecom and Infra sector was ok yesterday. FII's on net sell while domestic players on buy side last one week.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-622 cr) ::: DII (+84 cr)

• Nifty ended in discount of 8.05 vs 4.35 discount cost of carry decreased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ o.97 vs 0.98
• 4300 PE and 4500 Ce added more Open Interest
• India Vix closed @ 40.21 vs 45.04 with decrease 10.72% change suggest market in stable
• Except Index futures FII's where net buyers in all counters
• US closed positive & Europe closed flat positive

Technical view ::

Nifty done our target 4380 yesterday with strong selloff as predicted in yesterday's column. So what to expect today? Nifty made bullish divergence on hourly chart with target of 4460. Nifty again closed above 4365 support zone. As markets is in distribution we will see lower low in coming days with some pull backs on upside. Nifty making head and shoulder pattern in hourly charts with neck line @ 4334.Key levels to watch for 4323 and 4223 in nifty future. Today it will be a volatile day.Market will range bound until smart money comes into play.


Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4314 :: Res @ 4457

4350 - 4385 - 4413 - 4437

Bearish > 4405 < Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!

19/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty recovered after Monday's fall due to short covering again.Buying seen in heavy weight stocks at lower levels which helped index to move higher yesterday.Advance/Decline ratio was good yesterday. Though Reliance not supported the Index at higher levels.Technology and Sugar sector did well yesterday.Government keen on RIL - RNRL dispute.FII's again net sellers for third day while DII's Investing at this level.As mentioned in yesterday's column Dollar bottoming out will make out flow FII's money.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-772 cr) ::: DII (+467 cr)

• Nifty ended in discount of 4.35 vs 15.30 discount cost of carry decreased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ o.98 vs 0.93
• 4300 PE and 4700 Ce added more Open Interest
• India Vix closed @ 45.04 vs 46.49 with decrease 3.12% change suggest market in stable
• US house sales down by 1% and CPI was unchanged for month of July 2009
• US/Europe markets ended positive

Technical view ::

As expected Nifty came to 4435 which we mentioned in yesterday's column and rallied above that for high of 4495.Today I am expecting market to open flat and trade positive until afternoon after that sell off can come which will lead to 4380 mark. For me yesterday's run are technical pullbacks on upside. 4365 giving solid support once close below that will take markets to 4300 and 4215 levels. Old Fibo levels will come into play.Still markets on bearish side, Positional traders can look for OTM options in September series. Markets are in distribution phase. Only smart money can take market higher high. Until that it will be range bound with negative bias.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4380 :: Res @ 4528

4417 - 4442 - 4466 - 4491

Bearish > 4460 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

NBventure
Uflex
varun Indutries

Happy Trading !!!!

18/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened weak yesterday on negative asian cues and tumbled @ after noon session and recovred slightly with volumes @ close hour.chinese markets tumbled yesterday due to government policy over a possible tightening of bank lending policies which triggered sell-off around global markets.FII's again net sellers .FII money in outflow due to Dollar strength. If this gonna happen from here on Fundamentally we will reach 3600 soon. Reliance is leading the fall again.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-226 cr) ::: DII (+460 cr)

• Nifty ended in huge discount of 15.30 vs 4.95 discount so cost of carry decreased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 0.93 vs 1.01
• 4300 PE and 4700 Ce added more Open Interest
• India Vix closed @ 46.49 vs 44.24 with 5.09% change suggest market Instability
• FII's Net buyers in Index Options
• Biggest IPO gonna list today in china markets about 7.3 trillion dollar IPO
• US and Europe markets closed deep negative

Technical View::

Nifty witnessed huge sell off yesterday. Nifty TRIN finally shoots above 1 which is strong bearish sign.Again Nifty closed below 20 MA and 50 MA with 4475 Resistance which can target 100 MA this time which pegged @ 4050.ADX is on sell side. MACD above zero. Can try OTM put Option in nifty. Today I am expecting a Flat day with pull back 4435. Overall Market sentiment turned bearish. I will play only OTM in nifty options positionally.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4292 :: Res @ 4452

4332 - 4360 - 4389 - 4404

Bearish > 4407 < Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!!!!!

14/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened huge gap up yesterday on strong global and never gave up 4500.New Tax code proposal which mentioned scrub of STT made positive among Investors. Reliance Opened huge gap up yesterday and not supported markets @ morning session later it joined and gave new high.Fresh buying seen @ markets. FII finally starting their new innings.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+631 cr) ::: DII (+183 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 6.10 vs 2.50 premium cost of carry increased
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.03 vs 0.92
• Nifty 4300 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest
  
• India Vix closed @ 42.80 vs 42.52 suggest unstable market
• Except Index option FII's where net buyers in all segment
• US and Europe markets closed positive

Technical View ::

Until nifty close below weekly support 4384 its a buying opportunity is what we mentioned in previous columns. Nifty opened straight above 4500 and never gave up that yesterday. Nifty done our 4560 target of bullish divergence which we mentioned yesterday.Short covering seen @ higher levels and small buying too seen . FII's again proved they are the kings. So is it a reversal for 5000 this time? lets see. Global markets giving support for bulls. New Tax proposal, Good IIP data, FED's words about recession bottoming made investors community a boost. So Technically we will see now .In EOD charts Slow stochastic made a cross over . +DI above - DI in ADX. Nifty finally closed above 20 MA. Guppy MA made a golden cross yesterday suggesting shorts have been covered,whenever golden cross appear it could be trend reversal. But what lacks here is volumes. Dry volumes suggest still no aggressive buying seen this may be due to Monsoon concern. If volumes picks from here on next landing will be @ 5000 this time. Short term traders can try some good stock picks here. My picks will be Tata Motors, Kotak Bank,GVK power ,Indowind,BGR energy.



Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4552 :: Res @ 4670

4581 - 4602 - 4620 - 4640

Bearish > 4570 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!!!!!!!

13/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened negative and traded negative until IIP data, IIP data beat the street expectation.But market skipped IIP data and made days low . Later nifty took support @ 4350 and recovered more than 120 points to days high and closed near days high yesterday.Realty sector zoomed on final hour.Front line counters like RELIANCE,ONGC helped for the late hour recovery.Textile,Hotel,Realty where top sectors yesterday. FII's still on sell side.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-505 cr) ::: DII (+191 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 2.50 vs 6.90 discount cost of carry increased
• Nifty Put Call Ratio @ 0.92 vs 0.91
• India VIX closed @ 42.52 vs 38.20 with increase of 11.31 suggest instability in market
• 4400PE and 4700CE added more Open Interest in nifty option side
• DII's are net buyers for 4th day
• U.S. Federal Reserve resolved to keep the key interest rates unchanged, at 0 to 0.25%
• Us and Europe markets closed positive

Technical view ::

As said in yesterday's column until nifty close below 4380 buying will be witnessed.Yesterday's Inv H&S failed when nifty gapped down.Bullish divergence witnessed in Nifty hourly charts for target of 4556 in nifty future.Nifty still closing above weekly support of 4384. 4405 is the level to watch in nifty future today.Tatasteel is a good pick around current levels with support of 420.



Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4392 :: Res @ 4528

4426 - 4448 - 4471 - 4493

Bearish > 4464 < Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!

12/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened weak as expected which gave buying opportunity and made intraday swing of more than 150 points and closed in green after 3 days fall. News about monsoon from finance minister made investor community some hope. Reliance was the dragger and leader yesterday.Pharma stocks specially Ranbaxy ran after the news about bagging order of tamiflu from Govt. Auto and sugar sector remained firm yesterday.FII's still on sell side.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-177 cr) ::: DII (+649 cr)

• Nifty ended in discount 60.90 cost of carry decreased.
• Put call ratio Open interest @ 0.91 vs 0.86
• India VIX closed @ 38.20 vs 38.19 suggest markets are stable
• 4400 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest in Nifty Option side
• DII's where strong buyers yesterday resulting 4 days of continuous buying
• US and Europe market end in negative
• Nifty likely to open flat to negative

Technical View ::

Nifty again getting support @ 4380 which we mentioned yesterday. until nifty close below that buying will be witnessed.Nifty future formed an mini Inv Head and shoulder in hourly charts Neckline @ 4510 level. Bar closing above that on hourly charts can lead nifty all the way to 4620 -4650 level. EOD charts still on bears side. Nifty formed a spinning top candle @ EOD. Spinning top is a trend revesal candle. Traders should wait for more confirmation that the trend is changing prior to taking a short or long position. 4400 is giving solid support. ADX decline suggest sideways market. stochastic about to cross @ EOD. MACD still on bearish cross. Positional traders can stay away from markets until we get some clue.


Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4400 :: Res @ 4528

4432 - 4453 - 4475 - 4496

Bearish > 4462 < Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!!

11/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened a gap up on strong global cues yesterday but strong selling witnessed at higher levels. Slow Monsoon concern among investors lead nonparticipating in markets with swine flu sentiment added.Nifty traded sideways with positive bias until afternoon for a swing of 50 points (4450 - 4500) but later massive sell off in auto stocks made all the way to days low. Major stocks like LT,RELIANCE countered sell off. IT index was firm throughout the session.Foreign investors packing up their journey from Indian markets for time being. Nikkei was injected higher foreign institutional fund among all world markets as of now.Indian markets skipping world markets. Profits have been taken out at all bounce.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-640 cr) ::: DII (+86 cr)

• Nifty ended in discount -11.90 cost of carry decreased
• Put call ratio Open Interest @ 0.86 vs 0.91
• India VIX closed @ 38.19 vs 40.85 with -6% change denotes market getting stabilize.
• 4400 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest
  
• DII's where net buyers in this fall.
• FII's where net buyers yesterday except Index options
• US/Europe markets closed negative

Technical view ::

We advised positional traders to book profits around 4700 and asked to wait for 4380 levels So is this right area to pick longs lets see technically. Nifty had corrected around 5 % from the high. on the daily chart.so we have 2 probability of trades here in this zone.

1st probability ::

Nifty looks its waiting for 50 % retrace level which pegged @ 4305. If it not holds then final support @ 4215 . So many waiting for that range to pick longs. So we going get 4215? technically yes.

*** -DI crossed +DI in ADX which is strong bearish signal.
*** MACD crossover happened above zero line which is mild bearish.
*** Nifty spot broken another trendline support @ 4485 and closed below that.
So the above technical reasons can be taken to achieve 4215.

2nd probability ::

Nifty bounced exactly from 4380 levels. so will it do this time? let see the probability

*** Hourly trendline support @ 4350
*** RSI2 @ Oversold region
*** Nifty closing above 50 MA
*** Nifty heavily Oversold
*** Nifty still above weekly support


Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4337 :: Res @ 4513

4381 - 4411 - 4440 - 4470

Bearish > 4470 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

7/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Clearly mentioned in yesterday's column try to book profits at higher level it happened with index falling huge @ late hours due to heavy profit booking.Investors community are waiting for injext their money @ 3 - 5 % correction level from here. Yesterday indicated that FII's on sell so caution need on Long again they them-self proved.One more reason is Dollar likely to bottom out so they will be on sell side rather buy. Another trigger for yesterday's sell off is due to report on Monsoon says that it could take GDP lower than expected.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-371 cr) ::: DII (257 cr)

• Nifty closed in huge discount of 7.25 vs premium of 11.10 cost of carry decreased
• PCR Open Interest @ 1.06 vs 0.98
• 4600 PE and 4700 CE added more open Interest
• India VIX closed at 37.65 vs 36.70 increased by 2.59% suggest instability
• FII's net buyers in stock futures
  
• US markets closed negative

Technical view::

ADX suggested profit booking @ higher level which we mentioned yesterday. Nifty closed below 4603 which opened gate for correction upto 50 MA where it lies @ 4412 level.Any big down move only below that until that I will be a buyer with stop 4400.MACD/ on the verge of crossover but still not if it crossed Negative Divergence confirmed. ADX +DI finally below trendline. CCI getting supported @ that line in charts. Investors can wait for 4450 levels if it holds can buy . 4550 Important level to watch today.


Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4480 :: Res @ 4676

4530-4561-4594-4627

Bearish > 4661 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!!!!!!!

Nifty opened flat and traded around 4685 level which we mentioned yesterday. After that market fall due to profit booking around those levels and got support @ 4630 range and traded range bound until afternoon session. Relaince,SBIN where runners in frontline counters yesterday and lead Index @ final hour trading and ended flat. Reliance broken the 2030 barrier and closed above it Advance decline ratio was good .

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-691 cr) ::: DII (-24 cr)

• Nifty future Ended In huge premium of 11.10 vs -1.25 discount so cost of carry increased huge
• PCR Open Interest @ 1.06 vs 1.04
  
• 4600 PE and 4700 CE added more open Interest
• India VIX closed at 36.70 decreased by .27% suggest staibilty
• US and Europe markets closed Negative

Technical View ::

Nifty closing above 4603 will be bullish. ADX +DI declining suggest to book profits at higher levels. RSI just holding below its trendline. Overall 4603 close below will see a correction or buying @ dips will continue for 5000. FII's where huge sellers yesterday which giving some caution note for long side.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4650 :: Res @ 4760

4677 - 4696 - 4714 - 4732

Bearish > 4674 < Bullish

Nifty again had a range bound session and not violated 4640 support which we mentioned here.Nifty recovered smartly at final hour session with the help of metal and auto after good sales report and closed negative after four positive sessions.Reliance broke 2030 barrier and traded @ 2050 mark.FII's are still net buyers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+219 cr) ::: DII (+253 cr)

• Nifty closed in discount of 1.25 vs premium of 2.70 so cost of carry decreased
• Nifty Put call ratio Open Interest @ 1.04 suggest shorts addition
• 4600 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest
• India VIX closed at 36.80 vs 40.65 decreased by 3% suggest stability in Market
• US markets closed flat and Europe closed negative

Technical View ::

Profit booking witnessed @ higher levels with volumes. Buying @ dips and selling @ high will happen until it trades 4600 - 4700 range.Breaking 4600 will give near term correction this time.
I will wait for 4450 range to buy positionally again.Negative divergence seen in Intraday charts, so longers try to book profits @ higher levels or have tight stop loss.4685 is the key level to watch today in nifty future.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4635 :: Res @ 4723

4657 - 4671 - 4686 - 4701

Bearish > 4691 < Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!!

4/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap up ahead of global cues and traded flat until afternoon, Later volumes picked up in front line counters which surged Nifty Index to cross 4700 mark high of 14 month.People asking nifty running hard without any dip,if its so why you scratching for nifty there are many other stocks to trade. Caution need to trade in Nifty,this rally remind me JAN 2008. Anyway lets see what market gonna show us. World economy is easing. FII are net buyers for past 3 days.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+347 cr) ::: DII (+61 cr)

• Nifty closed in premium 2.70 vs 0.40 Discount on Monday so cost of carry increased
  
• Nifty Put Call ratio Open Interest @ 0.99
• FII's Net sellers in Index Options
• India Vix closed @ 40.65 vs 39.21 with 3.65% change suggest instability in market
• US/Europe markets closed Positive
• 4400 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest
  

Technical view ::

Nifty Momentum and trend is up. Intra charts Price moving higher high though not the oscillators suggesting longs need to caution. The Pit stop for bulls @ 4795 level crossing that all set for 5000.Nifty forming a rising wedge pattern and MACD a bearish Divergence spotted though still crossover need to be confirmed for top. So its alarming Longs be caution or skip nifty and trade some stocks with addition Nifty in Huge Overbought zone where 3 - 4 % correction will be good for 5000 or else its again a JAN 2008 in progress.ADX slightly turning upside which says bulls are stronger. Today above 4738 it will give 4768 and 4797 and below 4703 it will give 4686 and 4645.Reliance above 2030 15% upmove we can expect.Any longs trying here should have tight Stoploss @ 4670

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4649 :: Res @ 4778

4681 - 4703 - 4724 - 4746

Bearish > 4664 < Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!

3/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Friday Market opened huge gap and failed to cross 4680 mark where it moved sideways with a huge selloff to cover the gap. After gap filling market moved up for a swing of 60 points with huge volumes suggest big bull - bear fight going on.Market in no clue again where to move further. Selling @ higher levels and buying @ dips witnessed. Still swing traders getting beaten in Index trading without clue.It index and FMCG was the two sectors which lead the market last week.


INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+582 cr) ::: DII (+316 cr)

• Nifty fut converted into discount from premium so cost of carry decreased.
• Nifty PCR Open Interest @ 0.98
• 4500 PE and 4700 CE added More Open Interest
• India Vix closed @ 39.21 vs 37.49 with 4 % change suggest Instability in mkt.
• Us closed flat and Europe closed negative on Friday.
• Indian private aviation industry opting for bailout of 10000 crores from Govt.
• FII's and DII's are Net buyers.
  

Technical view ::

Nifty formed an Inverted Head and shoulders in weekly charts. check the 61.8% retracement of 2008 swing high and low It will be hard toll for bulls to cross. Once its done 5000 is easily gettable. RSI 2 and MACD still in bullish zone. Weekly moving averages are aligned bullish.With 4380 as Stop try long in every correction because 4380 is acting as solid support. volume suggest nifty in accumulation.Bull spread will be better for this expiry in option side.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4584 :: Res @ 4688

4610 - 4630 - 4645 - 4661

Bearish > 4632 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!!!!!!