USD Bottomed out?

The way fund houses bought USD calls of next year gave me a clue that USD will bottom out soon, which I mentioned sometime before. So this the time to buy USD ? lets see what fundamental & technical says.

Yesterday USD spurted which was purely a short covering. Fundamentally a fact that positive job growth could spur the Fed to raise interest rates sooner then expected. They way commodities fell Friday also says that Dollar could rebound strong from here on.so what Technicals says for USD? lets see.


We will take weekly chart to analyse it. In the above chart USD finds some supp @ june 2008 high zone. where last two weeks it held. we had a Bullish engulf candle this week. Weekly MACD had a bullish crossover which is strong signal. Stochatics have +ve Div and closed above 20 zone for first time after this heavy fall. with all these bullish technical conditions we can conculde that it can retrace upto 40 MA weekly (79.84) nearly 80 zone where we need to watch will able to cross that or not. If USD takes this week high of 75.94 then it will be a selloff week in US markets and rest markets where dollar play major role. so track that.

Have a gr8 weekend !!!!!!!!!!!

02/12/09 - Market cues & calls


Nifty went for second consequent run on upside for the week with Asian markets yesterday. Commodity prices moving higher which may lead investors to turn into equity side. Bank Nifty did well yesterday. Big boy Reliance moved more that 3% yesterday. Unitech the highest gainer of index with more than 12% gain. Us and Europe markets closed green. Asian markets trading positive. lets see what Indian markets will show today.


Nifty view ::

Yesterday 5054 held well and nifty spurted upside.Island reversal pattern which mentioned yesterday working well for new highs. until the support of Island reversal breaks out buying @ lower levels will continue. A mild bearish Divergence seen on Intraday charts. Only factor to watch here is we are moving upside with low volumes, so how far this rally gonna sustain let see . Impulse state on EOD charts changed to bullish. Bulls are in hurry to open market above 5151 today .For Intraday 5165 and 5072 are Breakout levels. we may witness some fresh buying above october high 5181. Next Market trigger will be from inflation.


Stocks to watch ::

Noida toll
Kiridyes
Havells

Happy trading!!!!!!!!!

01/12/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened strong on better global cues yesterday ,traded flat and lighten up on the upside once GDP rolls out, which grew by 7.9% in Q2 September 2009. Metal,IT index lead yesterday's rally.Profit booking came out in after noon session which took nifty near 5000 mark and recovered smartly with 83 point gain. On Dubai crisis UAE central bank offered additional liquidity to local and international banks in the UAE and reassured investors it “stands behind” the lenders. Baltic Dry Index fell for 8th straight session which leads fall in shipping stocks across globe. Dow closed flat with +ve where europe markets closed nearly 1% down again on strong selloff in banks.Asian Markets trading mixed.Lets see whats there in technical side of nifty.

Nifty view::

Nifty took the stop of yesterday's short plan @ 5020. Nifty formed "Island reversal" pattern on EOD charts which is strong reversal pattern for upside, until yesterday's low takes out the pattern is valid for next upside run. Technically we will have a flat to negative open. Negative Divergence spotted on intraday charts. 5054 and 5007 are the levels to be watched today. Breaking or holding one of those levels will lead the market to some extent.Despite of pattern formed on Nifty , I have a gut feel that we made top yesterday atleast for few weeks. More bullishness seen over street and also among retailers.As markets are moving volatile just hedge your positions. Option players can go for a bear spread (Buy 1 lot of Dec 5000 PE and sell 1 lot of Dec 4900 PE = 221) keep until expiry.


Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4985 :: Res @ 5067


Stocks to watch ::

Cambridge
Eurocera
Jaibalaji
Vitlinfo
TTML

Happy trading !!!!!!