USD Bottomed out?

The way fund houses bought USD calls of next year gave me a clue that USD will bottom out soon, which I mentioned sometime before. So this the time to buy USD ? lets see what fundamental & technical says.

Yesterday USD spurted which was purely a short covering. Fundamentally a fact that positive job growth could spur the Fed to raise interest rates sooner then expected. They way commodities fell Friday also says that Dollar could rebound strong from here on.so what Technicals says for USD? lets see.


We will take weekly chart to analyse it. In the above chart USD finds some supp @ june 2008 high zone. where last two weeks it held. we had a Bullish engulf candle this week. Weekly MACD had a bullish crossover which is strong signal. Stochatics have +ve Div and closed above 20 zone for first time after this heavy fall. with all these bullish technical conditions we can conculde that it can retrace upto 40 MA weekly (79.84) nearly 80 zone where we need to watch will able to cross that or not. If USD takes this week high of 75.94 then it will be a selloff week in US markets and rest markets where dollar play major role. so track that.

Have a gr8 weekend !!!!!!!!!!!

02/12/09 - Market cues & calls


Nifty went for second consequent run on upside for the week with Asian markets yesterday. Commodity prices moving higher which may lead investors to turn into equity side. Bank Nifty did well yesterday. Big boy Reliance moved more that 3% yesterday. Unitech the highest gainer of index with more than 12% gain. Us and Europe markets closed green. Asian markets trading positive. lets see what Indian markets will show today.


Nifty view ::

Yesterday 5054 held well and nifty spurted upside.Island reversal pattern which mentioned yesterday working well for new highs. until the support of Island reversal breaks out buying @ lower levels will continue. A mild bearish Divergence seen on Intraday charts. Only factor to watch here is we are moving upside with low volumes, so how far this rally gonna sustain let see . Impulse state on EOD charts changed to bullish. Bulls are in hurry to open market above 5151 today .For Intraday 5165 and 5072 are Breakout levels. we may witness some fresh buying above october high 5181. Next Market trigger will be from inflation.


Stocks to watch ::

Noida toll
Kiridyes
Havells

Happy trading!!!!!!!!!

01/12/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened strong on better global cues yesterday ,traded flat and lighten up on the upside once GDP rolls out, which grew by 7.9% in Q2 September 2009. Metal,IT index lead yesterday's rally.Profit booking came out in after noon session which took nifty near 5000 mark and recovered smartly with 83 point gain. On Dubai crisis UAE central bank offered additional liquidity to local and international banks in the UAE and reassured investors it “stands behind” the lenders. Baltic Dry Index fell for 8th straight session which leads fall in shipping stocks across globe. Dow closed flat with +ve where europe markets closed nearly 1% down again on strong selloff in banks.Asian Markets trading mixed.Lets see whats there in technical side of nifty.

Nifty view::

Nifty took the stop of yesterday's short plan @ 5020. Nifty formed "Island reversal" pattern on EOD charts which is strong reversal pattern for upside, until yesterday's low takes out the pattern is valid for next upside run. Technically we will have a flat to negative open. Negative Divergence spotted on intraday charts. 5054 and 5007 are the levels to be watched today. Breaking or holding one of those levels will lead the market to some extent.Despite of pattern formed on Nifty , I have a gut feel that we made top yesterday atleast for few weeks. More bullishness seen over street and also among retailers.As markets are moving volatile just hedge your positions. Option players can go for a bear spread (Buy 1 lot of Dec 5000 PE and sell 1 lot of Dec 4900 PE = 221) keep until expiry.


Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4985 :: Res @ 5067


Stocks to watch ::

Cambridge
Eurocera
Jaibalaji
Vitlinfo
TTML

Happy trading !!!!!!

30/11/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty on Friday opened huge gap down due to news about Dubai financial tremors, where it went down till 4800 mark and recovered strongly @ the end.Banks and realty's are down more than 3% have recovered finally. Now how far this Dubai crisis will play out the world markets? The amount is not big as what we saw on previous financial crisis occasion and also no major Indian companies or banks deal over there. So there is nothing to do with Dubai crisis in our markets.But there are some internal concerns where we can play out from here on like P note, Increasing taxation on FII trades like Brazil,GDP. GDP numbers coming today which may induce Indian markets move from here on.Lets see how markets will play out.
Nifty View ::

Nifty struggling to cross the new high of this year,whenever we are about to cross some kinda news making all the way to bears.I strongly believed it will be done on last expiry where it was shuffled by Dubai news and DRR hike in china. So technically until we see new high this range will continue with 4798 support and 5151 resistance. So whats the game plan on Nifty today? let see. Asian markets opened strong due to Europe strong +ve close on friday which majorly affected by Dubai debt game. So we can effect a Gap up open above 5000 to fill the gap we left on Friday. One can boldly short around 5008 with stop of 5020, the price action of Friday says we will hit 4885 atleast once. Support for the day pegged @ 4849. we may trade flat until GDP data hits. Try to exit longs @ every rise or have strict stop with some option hedging. Bears will use all rise to short this market until high of october takes out. Pick mid cap banking stocks and cement sector for this month.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4849 :: Res @ 5008

Stocks to watch ::

Binani cem
Suzlon
Thinksoft
Ricoauto

Note :: Cant able to update nifty views due to personal reason, will try to post.

Happy trading!!!!!!!!!!

13/11/09 - Market cues & calls

Finally profit booking witnessed from cheap bulls. Still strong bulls accumulating at lower levels for 5200.Blue channel analyst still shouting short @ higher levels.When 5200 comes they will ask people to buy where smart money releases their Position.Dollar Index @ 15 month low. Until dollar founds some bottom FII inflow will continue in Indian markets.Gold Made our target 1120$ yesterday. Next target in gold is 1166$ with some retrace to lower side. Long term target sets @ 1300$.Banks continue to be dragging side on markets.so how markets will play today lets see.

Nifty view ::

As said yesterday 4966 and 4919 came below that bears cant able to hold and bulls bought it where we saw strong recovery @ end. Today bears will eye for 4970 to take a short for yesterdays low and below that.Nifty made Inside day yesterday where breaking low or high will give solid points which we saw on past.Until we close below 4875 buy @ dips for new high.Lack of buying @ higher levels witnessed yesterday. I strongly feel Longs will get liquidated here. 5050 is big resistance,hope it will be taken next week.Operators can take advantage of closing market below previous week close to make retailers feel market is weak.Today's game plan is if nifty opens gap down take a long for 4988 and 5005, rather if it opens around 4988 short for yesterdays low. Hope smart money will close nifty above 5000 mark today,lets wait and watch.

Levels ::

Bearish > 4974 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Kirloskar oil
Mahindra Ugine
Shoppers stop
WWIL


Happy trading !!!!!!!

12/11/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty stunned everyone crossing 5000 mark. Now all blue channels shouting to take longs which we are saying from last Friday.People who is short mood again and again shorting @ higher levels getting punched. Live with market,market wont change for you or for your position. Big boy Reliance stunned everyone. Bank Nifty struggled yesterday but managed to hold its support. All metals shined yesterday. So will bears havoc continues? lets see.

Nifty view ::

Nifty did our contra target 4965 yesterday and also closed above 5000. Still 5050 left which is mother of resistance, a gap up above that level will show strong bulls action. I expect profit booking around those levels. Bears need to hold below 4919 to make them strong. Bulls will keep on Buy @ 4950 levels for New high. For Intraday I expect Nifty to trade flat today with some profit booking where it can take Nifty to 4966. Positional traders as said earlier buy @ dips for 5050 and new high.Dow as said earlier trading sideways with thin volumes.

Levels ::

Bearish > 4958 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Jubliant
Neyveli Lignite
Eastern silk

Happy trading !!!!!

11/11/09 - Market cues & calls


Both Bulls and bears fought heavily with bears on upper hand with a swing of 100 points. As said yesterday many news flowing in street about Reliance which not allowing to move. Many big fund houses upgraded long in Reliance. SBIN keep on moving which helps Nifty to hold support zone. So will Nifty able to hold this zone lets see.

Nifty view ::

Nifty opened gap up and struggle to cross 4950. So 4965 level will be strong resistance for Index. and 4810 will be strong support. Hourly chart suggest some retrace until 4829 level fail to hold will make nifty to fall until 4773 where final support pegged in. Big Boy Reliance making trouble for Bulls. Nifty Holding yesterday's low will make index to cross 4950 today, where we need to watch volumes. Once crossing with volumes bulls will hold the week.Today I expect nifty to gap down where you can take long with strict SL @ 4848, rather if it gap up short for 4875 . Holding 4909 bulls will rule for 4965 and below 4851 bears will rule for 4810.

Levels ::

Bearish > 4893 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

ITI Ltd
Taj GVK Hotel
NCF

Happy trading !!!!!!

10/11/09 - Market cues & calls

Bears Havoc happened in Nifty as mentioned in yesterday's column. we are nearing our target 4965 so can we able to cross it?. Big Boy Reliance not supported yesterday's rally still Nifty managed to take on its own path with Banks particularly SBIN. So as said yesterday small banking stocks zoomed as well. Lets see what will be the trigger for today.

Nifty View ::

Nifty Done Inverse head and shoulder target of 4877 from 4700 massive 177 points. And also still contra target 4965 left. hope It will be Done today. Initially Nifty struggle to cross 4828 which we mentioned yesterday. Bears cant able to hold below 4785.Today Nifty should not break 4873 holding that Bulls will make the day. Nifty failing to hold that will take again to 4810. Nifty likely to open Gap up. Above 4988 You can add longs for 5050 and new high. Time analysis worked perfect From Friday for Long side.

Levels ::

Bearish > 4848 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Central bank
Tech Mahindra
KPIT cummins
Orbit corp

Happy trading !!!!!

9/11/09 - Market cues & calls


Nifty future swings more volatile where retailers cant able to step in. Last two days its happening much.As mentioned on Friday 4833 acted as strong resistance and cant able to move above that. Its big tussle between bulls and bears. Today we will know who gonna win.I feel this looks good investment zone for long term investors.so Lets see the trigger for today.

Nifty view ::

Nifty cant able to reach the Inverse head and shoulder target of 4877 on Friday where 4833 acted as strong resistance. weekly close above 4833 might be an strong bullish trigger which not happened . Until we breach the Neckline 4700 we can eye for that target. Neckline will act as support,breaching that it will slide more to 4640. Long need to have strong stop loss @ 4730 on closing basis. Hourly charts still on bear side with support @ 4664 . US markets will be sideways with low volumes as vacation gonna start there.Nifty likely to open flat where breaking Fridays low or high will trigger new trades until it will be useless to trade it. Today trading above 4828 bulls and below 4785 Bears will hold the day. I strongly feel we will see 4965 (contra view) as more sentiments laid on short side. Have strict stop and trade as volatile move going to continue for few days. Eye small banking stocks here for good return.


Levels ::

Bearish > 4800 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Dredging
ISMT
Ushamartin

Happy trading !!!!

6/11/09 - Market cues & calls


Nifty made both ways as we said in yesterday's column. Bears took Nifty down to 4655 and 4610 to get out and Bulls broke 4730 and stalled @ 4786 which is days high.Bulls have been saved by Indian Govt finally on their divestment plan on PSU's.Banks/reliance/IT saw some massive short covering by bears. so will this run continue? lets see.

Nifty view ::

Nifty formed a inverse head & shoulder pattern on hourly charts with neckline @ 4700. for tgt of 4877. As per time analysis we neared reversal date of nov7 which is tomorrow we may see some strong bulls action from here on for 4965. weekly close above 4833 may take nifty to new high until some bad news creeps in. Until we close above 4965 option writers will use the swing to write higher level call option. I may advice investors to pick some good midcap stocks.Nifty should not break 4690 today.smart money will try to accumlate stocks from here on seeing the massive short covering yesterday. Positional longers can have Stop @ 4690 and buy @ dips for 4965 tgt. Today opening abv 4833 is a strong bull trigger which is second target mentioned in yesterday's column. Bears can eye of 4650 zone one more time which can be overuled by 4833 opening.4862 is the next level to watch where we had massive fall from this zone. weekly close above that level is strong bullish sign for New high in Index. yesterday kingfisher call made more than 20%.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4690 :: Res @ 4862

Bearish > 4682 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Spice comm
Wockhardt
Hexaware

Happy trading !!!!

5/11/09 - Market cues & calls


Nifty finally closed in green after 11 stunning action showed by bears. Big boy Reliance played well yesterday made more than 5% and gave bulls a relief. Fund houses have rated Reliance a buy which made massive run in that. Banks and metals added flavor to bulls run yesterday. so will bulls action continue? lets see.

Nifty view ::

Yesterday's game cant be played as it opened flat. Many bears get trapped @ 4655 mark, so they may try to bring index to that level. Nifty formed Insider bar on EOD charts so break of 4730 will take nifty to 4786 and 4833. As mentioned on previous post MACD had reached its extreme where we need to see a technical Bounce which happened yesterday with low volume. Until we close above 4965 write calls of higher strike and buy lower strike puts.Below 4615 short index for full gain.Many asked about RIL until it close above 2071 its short @ rise. I will advice longers to use full of this short covering to exit if they trapped before. yesterday's pick jet airways went more than 65 rupees. Try to accumlate midcap banking stocks like dena bank, yes bank in these fall which we mentioned earlier too.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4618 :: res @ 4734

Bearish > 4652 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Kingfisher
Lic Housing
Unitech

Happy trading !!!!!

4/11/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty just filled the long gap which we left around 4545 - 4569 zone with a massive fall of 11 trading sessions. Reliance/SBIN/IT stocks have beaten heavily yesterday.Nifty closed below its 38.2% retrace 4669 of previous swing high and low.so will it continue its fall or get halt here? lets see.

Nifty view ::

Nifty skipped the +ve divergence on hourly charts once it breached 4669. Patterns/moving average cross/divergence/candles for every thing master is Stop loss. If you don't trade without stop loss its the most arrogant thing you doing as far as trading is concern. Markets are just peoples mindset and smart money's play. So never think to over come the both. Again as said on earlier two post Over sold markets doesn't mean we should not fall. Now adding some sense to that when people says about FII figures I used to laugh. If FII bought for 2000 cr so is there any rule market should not fall? those are just layman terms where so cald TV analyst used to say. Be your own boss always. Now coming back Nifty today if we open gap down today just go long with stoploss below 4525 or If we open gap up near 4600 just short with 4612 as stop. Today I feel Market will close flat to +ve. If the fall continues Nifty may have final halt @ 4453. Stop Loss Rules.


Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4450 :: Res @ 4620

Bearish > 4651 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Jet airways
MIRC
KGL

Happy trading !!!!

3/11/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty Short @ rise plan worked for Friday which gave more than 150 points.Dow beaten up heavily on Friday about 250 points on strong dollar rise and worries about jobless data. where that influenced many World markets to fall more than 2% . Chinese markets looks like havoc of fall which skipped DOW and sailed on its path yesterday. US govt had admitted jobless will be more in coming days which erased most of the gain which DOW made yesterday.Reliance under account fraud scanner which we mentioned on Friday came public yesterday,so it wont be done all of the sudden. Bounce should be used to book profits in RIL.So whats the action plan for Nifty today lets see.

Nifty View ::

Nifty Broken the key level 4777 and fell hard on Friday and went below 4700 with 4692 as low. so 4669 38.2% retrace will act as support. So positional traders Stop loss for longs should be 4669 on closing basis which I wont go for. Bcos it will be a retrace after 10 days of fall. Fresh longs will be added once we close above 4965 again for new highs. until that I wont think of longs rather I will short @ rise.In EOD charts MACD divergence @ most extreme suggest no room to fall. last column I mentioned oversold market doesnt mean we wont fall. same scenario will continue until stochastic cross signal line. Indicators suggests bears getting tired after 10 days of huge work from Diwali.Eod chart we can Find same kind of candle pattern lets see whether it holds this time.Nifty action plan for the day will be, if we open around 4725 short with stop of 4735 for 4669 target. Nifty need to hold above 4731 for any upmove. Now coming to Reliance it has technical target of 1300 on long term perspective. so Every Rise in Reliance make use to short with Stop loss of 2088 on closing basis.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4625 :: res @ 4790
Bearish > 4774 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Alkali metal
Bartronics
voltas

Happy trading !!!!!

30/10/09 - Market cues & calls

Woooooooo what an expiry? Expiry days are always easy to mint money which proved again, 4800 PE gave 800% return is just 30 mins. Expiry close beats every analyst view including me where all spoke with option data where markets fooled everyone, that's market and we should not chase it. These are important lessons for beginners in markets. If Market is king then Stop loss is queen always to tackle him. So Nifty expired @ 4750,where again operator showed their strength. what will be the scene today on Indian markets? Recovery or tumble? lets see. Big Boy Reliance have come with bad numbers which will not cheer the markets. US markets closed nearly 2% after 4 days slide with strong GDP numbers, will it continue yes. DOW closing above 10000 for the week will cross 10250 - 10500 this time.

Nifty view ::

Nifty Nov future ended up with 29 point premium. From recent swing high to low Nifty reached its 50% retracement @ 4767 yesterday and 38.2 pegged @ 4669 so thats area whr one can try to add their positions or Stop for longs on closing basis. Technically we are nearing the bottom of this fall, where a retracement is expected. Opening will be induced by Reliance with its bad result rather than US & Asian markets. Until 4833 crosses and holds one can short every rise for 4669 target. Shorts who are in profits can try to exit @ every dip as technically its Oversold market.Oversold does not mean will see lows.4731 is the support level breaching that will give 4669/4619/4575. The way FII's selling seems USD gonna bottom out.Gold will dip until mid of december,then we can expect sharp rise in it where it can reach 1250 - 1300 $ soon. So try to pick gold below $1000. And for our markets pharma,telecom sector will do better in this run. Pick Bharti airtel with an married put to tackle risk.Safe traders can skip overnight weekend position as we have holiday on Monday.

Levels ::

Nifty fut Supp @ 4738 :: Res @ 4820

Bearish > 4787 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

PNB Gilts
DCW
Skumars
Zicom

Happy trading !!!!

28/10/09 - Market cues & calls


Nifty opened Gap Down yesterday and traded flat to positive and cant able to sustain 4950 when RBI policy came out it has no clue to go up and also broken the range 4900 and closed below that. Bank nifty,realty,steel plunged hard yesterday. SBIN and ICICI are mega losers yesterday. lets see where we going to expire tomorrow.

Nifty view ::

Nifty cant able to hold the 4950 mark again Bears taking the charge on all higher levels and broken the 4900 mark where the gate opened for 4750. Close below 5005 will give 4830 which I mentioned last week came where it took some support, But as we are near expiry I thought that could not happen still it came.Today I feel sell off @ first recovery from second half where markets will expire on positive, still Stop loss rules. Below 4807 Nifty will reach 4732, Broadly 4900 break is the way for 4400 with some bounces. So 4732 is the level of Investor to watch out and accumulate some good stocks. Above 4845 nifty can do 4880 and 4900. have a eye on 4921 if crossed with vols then we can expect a solid expiry run.Daily charts are Oversold so a bounce in due . Safe traders can skip the market upto expiry. I feel solid bounce back on second half today where we will close the week green.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4807 :: res @ 4886

Bearish > 4896 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

ptc
Zylog

Happy trading !!!!!!!

27/10/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty Opened gap Down yesterday despite of positive Asian cues and SGX nifty. Buying Witnessed @ lower levels which take Nifty near 5050 mark again, where bulls got tired and cant make it move further above the grip level of 5060 where Morning bears took the charge again which lead to a fall below 5000 and closed below that for 2nd Day. with added RBI credit policy rumour in street and rollover to next month Nifty future whole day had a volatile session. So will Bulls cross 5000 again or bears take the charge for Final assault lets see.

Technical View ::

Nifty took support @ 4960 level again and moved near 5050 where it resisted and came back to 4960, so fight between bulls and bears will continue until the BO level mentioned yesterday (4900 or 5200).Nifty formed a +ve div on hourly charts,which will be negated if oscillators makes low with fall in price. Us markets fell due to strong rebound of US dollar among major pairs where Gold and oil plunged on profit takingm Dow will target the 50 MA which is @ 9675 where we can expect fresh buying coming in until that traders will take profit above 10000 markwhich will Lead to fall again and again. With 1% fall in US markets, today I feel again one more Gap Down where Intraday traders can take a long with 4929 as stop for 4980 and 5015 targets. No change in my expiry view mentioned yesterday. 5065 need to be the stoploss for shorters where we can expect a sudden spike above that level where it will cross 5100 again this time. Safe traders can skip the trading until RBI credit policy announcement where there will be hike in CRR this time.

Levels ::

Nifty fut Supp @ 4928 :: Res @ 5015

Bearish > 5001 < Bullish

Stocks to watch ::

Natco pharma
Zee news
Pricol

QOD :: “There are no failures - just experiences and your reactions to them.”

Happy trading !!!!

26/10/09 - Market cues & calls

Friday we done our small +ve div target of 5045 and nifty got resisted around 5050 for second time with the help of RELIANCE with hardys news.

So whats for the week? Asian markets Open strong despite of Dow's Friday fall. A gap Down open is expected in Indian markets. Expiry week will always been volatile for past 2 - 3 months.RBI monetary policy will add weightage to the markets this week and investor community will watch it keenly. If Nifty open a gap down just try 5000 CE for this expiry. I strongly feel 5150 0nce again either it may be on expiry day. Safe traders can wait and watch still 4900 or 5200 breaks on closing basis its No trade zone. Have a eye on ACC future it formed beautiful bullish pattern on charts. Reliance is now a short @ rise formation on hourly charts.

Levels ::

Bearish > 5021 < Bullish

Nifty fut Supp @ 4988 :: Res @ 5053

Stocks to watch ::

Acc
Pirhealth
Goa carbon
Sel Manufacruing

Happy Trading !!!!!!

23/10/09 - Market cues & calls

Hi all, sorry cant able to post my views these days. will post my views from here with short messages.

Nifty closed below 20 MA will it bounce from here? Last 3 times it did lets see what are factors to do that.Nifty yesterday took fibo support @ 5030 then had a bounce of 30 points but again selling pressure came and eroded morning gains. Again Banks are culprits as mentioned yesterday. Final minute buying made some hope for bulls in market,as its fully operator induced market they have more upper hands. Investors can look for these dips to pick some good midcap stocks.Technically its Head and shoulder playing in hourly chart for 4950 target. triple bottom @ 4950 level suggest that will be arresting point for the fall.Small +ve Div found for 5045 target. Above 5045 Nifty will target 5100.Again Banks will play important role today.Breach of 4950 will take nifty to 4830.

Levels ::

Bearish > 5025 < Bullish

Nifty fut supp @ 4950 :: Res @ 5050


Stocks to watch ::

Torrent power
EIH assoc
Nelco

Happy trading !!!!!

25/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty expired September series near 5000. Nifty opened a big gap down ahead of world markets and then short covering with help of bank nifty helped to recover. short covering seen in banking stocks.Chandrayan Mission successfully found water in moon which is a great milestone for Indian space agency.As result season nearing investors are hopeful to have better Q2 ahead of better advance tax numbers.Foreign institutions crossed 10000 crores in last 10 trading sessions which suggest they bet on Indian markets rather than other world markets which will perform well.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +1,061cr) ::: DII (-616 cr)

Nifty View ::

Nifty expired around 5000,but technically I said it will be above but missed though. we saw a inverse head and shoulder pattern in nifty 5 minute chart yesterday with neckline around 4925 gave some good profits.volatile index dropped yesterday .Nifty october series closed in huge premium.Market might be again a range bound here where we can expect some profit booking from FII side this time.only monthly trend and impulse state not supporting the upmove rest all indicators for good move on upside. Longs have strict SL @ 4880.


Bearish > 4997 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

BUY MAHINDRA UGINE @ 41-40 SL 38 (closing basis) TGT 47 - 50

Happy Trading !!!

24/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened negative yesterday and remained subdued i.e not moved more that 35 points until 2.30 then a big sell off gave swing of nearly 70 points and closed 1% down after 11 strong solid session. Market participants stay cautious ahead of FED meet yesterday where it left the key bank lending rate unchanged. Dow tumbled @ close after FED's announcement. Profit booking witnessed in Front liners. Advances: 10 Declines: 40 in Nifty 50 stocks suggest profit booking @ higher levels taking place.Institutional players are net buyers yesterday.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +1749cr) ::: DII (+500 cr)

Nifty View ::

Yesterday Option data clue getting confirmed expiry below 5000. Again a final hour sell off with huge volumes happened. Traders are cautious on higher side and not participating suggest correction on its way.on the other still smart money from Institutional investors is buying . PCR ratio decreased to 1.68 vs 1.77. Nifty closed in discount with increase in open interest.Nifty formed a head and shoulder pattern yesterday in 5 min charts gave good move.For me market still not in short mode. Expiry close will give some idea.4920 is good support level breaking that will lead all the way to 4880.Safe traders can look for positions from tomorrow. use these dips to buy some FMCG stocks it will be a runner this month.

Positional Picks ::

BUY APIL @ 545 SL 532 (closing basis ) TGT 600 - 615

Happy trading !!!

23/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty Made a new high around 5050 which is a strong resistance zone or atleast small profit booking area. As expiry near markets will be volatile due to rollover to next series. Reliance not participating in market rally is a bit concern. Foreign investors still on buy side. While local institutions remain booking their profit.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +853cr) ::: DII (-539 cr)

Nifty View ::

Nifty as mentioned in yesterday's column breaking 4989 gave us new high around 5050.Nifty fut closed in 10.55 premium. On option side Put Call open interest @ 1.77. 4600 PE and 5000 CE added open Interest suggest we will expire below 5000. But technically I am for a expiry above 5000. We witnessed final hour sell off yesterday with volumes which suggest people remain cautious or unwilling to participate @ higher levels. So much awaited correction in coming sessions? only expiry can tell us. Until that trade light with strict stoploss.


Stock picks ::

Asahi India
BIL
Concor
Gammon Ind
Manali petro
Nitin Fire

Happy Trading !!!

22/09/09 - Market cues & calls

5005 ---------- >>>>>>> One way done

Hi pals, sorry couldn't update Nifty views due to some personal work. will try to continue from here on just with some important levels and intra views.

Much waited 5005 which we mentioned in the blog have been done last week.so that's the area of profit booking for this long run. so where is the much awaited correction? will it come or not? those are million dollar question among investors and traders . the answer is simple follow the trend or FII's atleast. The way FII's injecting their money doesn't seems we will end this bull run here. lets see what gonna happen. This expiry will give us the clue of correction.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +1486cr) ::: DII (-505 cr)

Nifty view ::


4920 is the key level to watch today. Try to go long near that area . 4989 is giving solid resistance. Once crossing that level with volumes will trigger us new 52 week high. on a broader view breaking 4880 will give much awaited correction until 4550 this time. As far as longs are concern trade with strict SL positionally.

Bearish > 4977 < Bullish

Positional calls ::

3i Infotech
Bata India
Liberty shoes
Mother sumi
Relcap

Happy trading !!!!

10/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap down yesterday due to weak Asian global cues managed to get support and remained range bound.Reliance again a non stop thriller on upside making traders to concentrate on it.Banks/IT stocks looks good.FII's and DII's still a net buyers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +239cr) ::: DII (+193 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 3.20 point premium vs 3.25 point premium cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 31.66 vs 31.97 with -0.97 % suggest market getting stable.
• 4600 PE and 5000 Ce added more open interest.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.34 vs 1.27.
• FII's net sellers in all counters except index future and stock option.
  
• Volatility in puts is still higher than calls.
• US markets and Europe markets closed positive.

Technical view ::

Nifty getting strong support @ lower side, though there is lack of participation from investors smart money making it for longers. It will take nifty to maximum. so any change in technical side? nope nothing in this range bound move. As I said before until 4700 holds buy all dips. Pick metal and FMCG in this run. If any1 long in Reliance try to book profits. Intra indicators are highly overbought.SBIN still waiting for our target will be done today.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4789 :: Res @ 4846

Bearish > 4820 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

09/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap up and went near 4850 mark with 4845 as high. Profit booking witnessed @ higher levels.FII and DII both are net buyers yesterday. Our SBIN long recommendation did target1 hold for 2000. Reliance did splendid job yesterday with high volumes,though nifty skipped it totally. So until 4700 holds its a buy @ dips. we will see buying @ all correction dips.4785 and 4825 is the levels to watch out today. Intraday indicators are over bought. Still I bet for 4850 today. Running out of time so will finish here.

Levels ::

Bearish > 4804 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

HEG
EXCEL CORP
NEYVELI LIGNITE
WWIL

Happy trading !!!!

8/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap up on strong global cues and broke 52 week high. Sensex crossed 16000 mark which is 15 month high.Now traders and investors still fears to enter market here which is found by yesterday's dry volume.Nifty closed with striking 102 points @ 4783. FII's finally into huge buy.Monsoon news and G20 summit gave some hope for markets and economy.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +1061cr) ::: DII (+150 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 12.90 point premium vs 15.25 point premium cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @32.21 vs 32.51 with -0.92 % suggest market getting stable.
• 4600 PE and 5000 Ce added more open interest.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.22 vs 1.26
• FII's net buyers in all counters
• Volatilty in puts is still higher than calls.
  
• Europe markets closed positive and US markets closed on account of labor day.

Technical View ::

Nifty made a stunning rally ahead of short covering by bears and fresh buying in front liner stocks.Nifty finally reached 61.8% retracement of 4780 and managed to close above that. So will this uptrend continue? its the million dollar question. And so called TV analyst's now says 5600 in nifty within this year end. so lets see. only Bear trigger as of now is -ve divergence spotted on weekly and daily charts.For me until 4700 supports 5005 is visible. So use all dips for buying upto 4700.So after two days of bulls run we will cool off today.Nifty will try to trade above 4700 mark. If market opens gap up try to book profits in long. Below 4777 Nf will see 4752 and 4734 and above 4797 Nifty fut will see 4817 and 4848. Longers try to book profits @ every rise and intiate fresh longs again @ Breakouts.SBIN gave a Break out of symmetrical triangle will target 1880 and 2000.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4735 :: Res @ 4857

Bearish > 4797 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

7/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty had a stunning Friday recovered with a swing of nearly 125 points.Still market around the kickoff zone 4730 which gets struggle again.So today a Gap up above 52 weeks high will clear the fence this time for bulls.Still I am not seeing any fresh buy,may a short covering last Friday.on Friday both FII's and DII's are net sellers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -400 cr) ::: DII (-5 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 15.25 point premium vs 6.10 discount so cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @32.51 vs 34.11 with -4.69 % suggest market getting stable.
• 4600 PE and 4800 Ce added more open interest.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.12 vs 1.22
• Except Index options FII's were net Sellers in all other counters.
• US and Europe markets closed positive

Technical View ::

4650 Resistance broken finally on Friday which lead to massive short covering.Volatility seen more in puts than call suggest traders go for puts rather than calls.so technically we saw any change still not. Trendline giving support for 3rd time around 4580.Daily and weekly charts long negative divergence spotted suggest trade with caution on positive or long side. If we not close above 52 week high today or in coming days it will be a triple top around this area which will be favor for shorting. Today I feel it will be an important day in Indian markets to watch out.



Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4625 :: Res @ 4767

Bearish > 4696 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

4/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened positive on global cues yesterday followed by swing move on both sideways then remain subdued. Buying witnessed in some frontline stocks. Reliance made a major fall yesterday making the index to close near days low.Nifty closed with a loss of 24 points and below 4600 mark.FII's again net sellers. Gold finally zoomed to our 1000$ target. A close above 1000$ can target 1250$ in near term. so gold looks good investment here.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -73 cr) ::: DII (+382 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 6.10 discount vs 6.10 point premium so cost of carry decreased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.11 vs 34.96 with -2.43 % suggest market getting stable.
• 4500 PE and 4700 Ce added more open interest and both are highest traded volumes yesterday.
  
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.09 vs 1.23
• Except Index futures FII's were net Sellers in all other counters for the third day.
• LIC going to invest 1 trillion in coming fiscal year
• US and Europe markets closed positive

Technical view ::

Yesterday mentioned about head and shoulder pattern for 4580 target,though target has been done its a failed pattern .yesterday volume is very dry. 4650 looking solid resistance for past two days.Until 4681 takes out its short @ rise. Finally MACD @ EOD charts came to sell side. Nifty forming a falling wedge pattern in this fall,with breakout line @ 4610.As said in yesterday's column nifty still getting support from trendline.So again in investors perspective stay light with ur positions. 4561 and 4681 or important levels to watch.



Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4539 :: Res @ 4621

Bearish > 4593 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

3/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap down yesterday followed by smart recovery skipping global markets and remained clueless where to go further. Investors are still away from the market thinking markets look pricey around these levels. IT stocks and FMCG was good in yesterday's trading session. Market taking cues from both US and China, with China as more advantage. FII's again net sellers even more.Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold.As a result the Chinese government seems to be doing its utmost in trying to persuade the Chinese public to buy gold and silver by relaxing the restrictions - it’s now easier to buy precious metals in China than in the U.S. If this continues the likelihood is that China will permanently overtake India as the world’s biggest buyer of gold and silver, while the country’s store of wealth will help shield it against further western economic collapse. The way Gold moved yesterday suggest fall in equity markets around globe going to continue.Its a bull season for Gold which will target $1000 this time.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -688cr) ::: DII (+74 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 6.10 premium vs 2 point discount so cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.96 vs 34.98 with 0.06 % decrease suggest market getting stable.
• 4500 PE and 4800 Ce added more open interest
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.23 vs 1.18
• Except Index futures FII's were net Sellers in all other counters.
• Market turnover was marginally down compared to last two days.
• US and Europe markets closed negative.

Technical View ::

Nifty had no technical change except some intra day patterns. Nifty formed a Head and shoulder pattern in 5 min for a target of 4580.NIfty EOD still holding its Trendline support which comes around 4532.MACD still above zero line.ADX was trendless for last 35 trading session suggest big move coming.Levels to watch is 4681 until that shorts will be added atleast for intra. Investors are asked to go for light positions until we get some clue.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4565 :: Res @ 4665

Bearish > 4622 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!!

2/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened positive yesterday ahead of global cues and crossed 4700 mark again reaching a high of 4747 with dry volumes. Later market tumbled on weaker opening of Europe markets.Sugar and auto sector did well yesterday. Sugar sector performing well on strong demand.FII's again on net sellers with strong sell on stock futures for second day. Domestic institutions are Buyers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -636 cr) ::: DII (+367 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 2 point discount vs 11.80 premium so cost of carry decreased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.98 vs 34.51 with 1.36% increase suggest market getting unstable
• 4600 PE and 4800 Ce added more open interest
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.18 vs 1.24
  
• Except Stock futures FII's were net buyers in all other counters for second day.
• Ford Motor plunged after reporting a 17% gain in total August sales
• US and Europe markets closed negative.

Technical view ::

Nifty achieved our invert head & shoulder pattern target 4730 which we mentioned yesterday.Nifty gave a good hint to book profits @ higher levels yesterday when indicators are not making high with price. Volume is dry @ up move. Volume pattern remembering me 6/8/09 where nifty fall from 4730 - 4350 on hourly charts. so what EOD charts saying? EOD still in no clue. With MACD still above zero line,Sideways ADX, RSI2 Nearing Oversold zone.RSI trendline @ EOD charts suggest some more room to fall,breaking that will be BAD. Today market will open Negative will fill the gap which we mentioned in chart.


Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4540 :: Res @ 4706

Bearish > 4616 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!!

1/09/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened Gap down yesterday on weak global cues yesterday lead by china .Shanghai Composite plunged 6.7%, as investors dealt with liquidity concerns and an anticipated slowdown in lending. Recent sharp declines in Chinese stocks have unnerved investors who are worried about whether the major economies can pull convincingly out of recession and validate this year's rally in riskier assets.Meanwhile GDP was released yesterday which was 6.1% in april - June 2009. As mentioned in column yesterday Realty and sugar sector did stunning performance yesterday. Realty will do good rest of the week.Steel sector plunges ahead of bad result from Tata steel FII's continue to be net sellers.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -271 cr) ::: DII (+19 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 11.30 point premium vs 5.85 premium so cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.51 vs 33.27 with 3.73% increase suggest market getting unstable
• 4500 PE and 4900 Ce added more open interest
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.24 vs 1.2
• Except Stock futures FII's were net buyers in all other counters.
• US and Europe markets closed negative.

Technical view ::

Finally Negative divergence and RSI overbought conditions gave some relief for bears.Moving averages are still heading up in Nifty Eod charts. Adx is totally flat suggesting that Big move in due and still +DI above -DI suggest Bulls are ruling.MACD still above zero line.RSI 2 Within a day came back to Oversold zone.Nifty formed Invert Head and shoulder pattern on 5 min charts with Neckline @ 4685 will target 4720/30.Market likely to open Flat to negative.4620 is the key support level.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4631 :: Res @ 4716

Bearish > 4676 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

ICI

Hyderabad Industries

Happy trading!!!!

31/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty made 52 week high again and closed week above 4700 for the first time.Markets on Friday fell on morning session and recovered afternoon by making new high of 4750.Nifty ended with 200 points gain for the week.GDP data release today which will remain as key factor from here on. Realty was the runner for last week.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( +554 cr) ::: DII (+5 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 5.45 point premium so cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 33.27 vs 34.84 with -4.51% decrease suggest market getting stable
• 4500 PE and 4900 Ce added more open interest
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.2 vs 1.37
  
• Except Index options and stock options FII's were net sellers in all other counters.
• Us markets closed negative after 8 straight positive sessions and Europe closed negative.

Technical view ::

Nifty touched 4750 mark finally. Here 4790 is ab next reversal level. Weekly charts made an bullish engulf candle which is positive and bollinger coming in suggest we will consolidate this week.I have marked those type of pattern on previous occasions.option data suggest 4500 and 4900 is the area of trade. Bears are favored only by bearish divergence and RSI 2 @ Over bought level.Those who missed the long can wait for a correction or a close above 4790 for 5005 target.Pick some good stocks @ this level.




Levels ::


Nifty fut supp @ 4676 :: Res @ 4798

Bearish > 4730 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

ACC
Sintex
Neyveli Lignite

Happy Trading !!!!

28/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened negative yesterday as expected and Recovered nearly 60 point swing due to buying in front line stocks. Market was volatile due to expiry. Rollover in September series was there with 71% marginally Down compared to last year.Nifty August series expired @ 4688 a bit closer to our estimated 4700 level. Textile,pharma and sugar sector was top runners yesterday. Tata steel produced bad result make the stock plunge at second half.Total income declined to 47%. Fm gives assurance of food grain sufficiency.Industry minister unveils new foreign trade policy and said 200 billion export target for the year 2011.FII was net sellers yesterday.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( -41 cr) ::: DII (+29 cr)

• Nifty ended @ 9 point discount in September series cost of carry increased.
• India Vix closed @ 34.84 vs 36.27 with -3.47% decrease suggest market getting stable
• Except Index futures FII's were net sellers in all other counters.
• US jobless claim data was bad.
• US closed positive and Europe closed negative.

Technical View ::

Nifty was solid holding the support 4650. Nifty showing bearish divergence in hourly charts and over bought conditions are the only factor for bears technically. We are starting a new series today so positional traders are asked to watch before entering new position. Technically week closing above 4709 will take nifty to 5005 this time.Pick some good low level stocks for this run.Dow holding in the grip of bulls skipping bad data. usually September will be low volume month in US markets.Today 4691 will act as reversal level in Nifty future. Today I am expecting nifty trade flat with dry volumes.Nifty again like to consolidate in these levels for 2 days.Our yesterday's positional picks did well except ansalinfra.

Levels ::

Nifty future supp @ 4667 :: Res @ 4728.

Bearish > 4684 < Bullish

Happy trading !!!

27/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened positive yesterday and remained range bound through out the day ahead of expiry and closed positive.Government Data on Infrastructure Made a drag in markets in afternoon session and later recovered.FII's again turned net buyers.US house sales data was much better.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII ( 379 cr) ::: DII (+129 cr)

Today expiry day trade with caution. Today nifty will set for break out. Again Bearish Divergence spotted in nifty hourly charts,but days near expiry will be operators play so we cant expect technical to work.Nifty likely to expire around 4700.

Positional Picks ::

Ansal Infra
Ashok Leyland
National Alum (NALCO)
Videocon


Happy Trading !!!

26/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened gap down and took support at 4580 where we moved to new high of the week. Reliance was the top gun which shot Bears yesterday. Domestic funds accumulating reliance despite of SEP1 RIL- RNRL verdict.Short covering witnessed in more September series stock futures. Govt daily coming with good news on monsoon.IT and pharma stocks did well in yesterday's trading session. FII' finally was net sellers yesterday

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-259 cr) ::: DII (+437 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 1.60 vs premium of 9.00 cost of carry increased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.25 vs 1.22
• 4400 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest. OTM Puts have been written.
• India Vix dropped @ 48.30 vs 63.58 with decrease 24.03% change suggest market stable. but VIX was clueless for past one month
• FII's where net sellers in stock futures
• US and Europe markets closed positive

Technical view ::

Nifty opened gap down as we mentioned in the column yesterday and took support @ 4380. Bearish divergence which we mentioned yesterday worked. So what is for today? Again Bearish divergence spotted in nifty hourly charts this time with target of 4580 . Price making higher high while indicators making lower low. Its not yesterday even its happening in small time frame suggest market moving without strength.Breakout in due for huge run in nifty this time which we mentioned in Monday's column. I am expecting that tomorrow. Reliance will lead nifty run this time either way.4656 is reversal level today watch it keenly. Nifty will open flat. Safe traders wait for nifty to expire. Trade some good stocks here.

Levels ::

Nifty fut supp @ 4605 :: Res @ 4716

4633 - 4651 - 4670 - 4688

Bearish > 4650 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

COLPAL
DALMIACEM
KCPSUGIND
PRAJIND

Happy Trading !!!!

25/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened huge gap up on strong global cues yesterday and remained positive through out the session. Bringing back some confidence on investors community.Realty,IT,Metal,FMCG performed well in yesterday's trading session. Still RIL - RNRL dispute is clueless we need to wait for the verdict @ SEP1. FII's are net buyers again with domestic players.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (+712 cr) ::: DII (+275 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 9.00 vs premium of 7.40 cost of carry increased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1.22 vs 1.o9
• 4400 PE and 4700 CE added more Open Interest suggest Unwinding in 4700CE.
• India Vix shoots up @ 63.58 vs 38.51 with increase 65.10% change suggest market totally without stable.
• FII's net sellers in Index options.
• US and Europe markets closed flat.

Technical View ::

Nifty crossed 4600 mark again yesterday and closed above 4650. As mentioned in yesterday's column yesterday's Final hour is crucial for next sailing. Without that I will go short @ every rise for target of 4444. With support to that yesterday price making higher high not indcators suggest bearish divergence.Market will be in rangebound until expiry after expiry we can expect a big breakout.4635 is crucial level today or reversal level for Intraday. Play Intraday until Expiry. 4600 PE will be good bet for this expiry. yesterday our Positional pick AIengineering made 10% .

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4609 :: Res @ 4695

4619 - 4644 - 4658 - 4674

Bearish > 4643 <Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!

24/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened Gap down on Friday on weak global cues and managed to hold 4400 support. Strong buying witnessed in noon session which made nifty cross 4500 mark again, Nifty mad a 38 point loss last week.FII's again on their buying hunt. Will it Remain>? lets see.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (533 cr) ::: DII (+96 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 7.40 vs premium of 2.60 cost of carry increased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1 vs 1.o9
• 4300 PE and 4600 CE added more Open Interest suggest 4300 will not be taken this expiry
• India Vix closed @ 38.51 vs 36.83 with increase 4.56% change suggest market instability
• US and Europe markets closed Positive

Technical View ::

Nifty Took support @ 4385 and made a comeback above 4500 on friday. As expiry week market will be volatile and range bound so trade cautiously. Still Nifty in Range without Breakout @ Expiry day I am expecting a Breakout for next series. Today Final hour will tell us where nifty gonna sail from hereon.4585 will act as reversal level so watch that . Weekly Resistance @ 4670 and Support @ 4419.Today Below 4515 nifty will do 4485/4450. Above 4548 Nifty will do 4568/4585. Safe traders wait for Breakout.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4453 :: Res @ 4618

Bearish > 4415 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

AIAENG
ASTRAMICRO
NITCO
RUCHIINRA
UNICHEMLAB
YESBANK

Happy Trading!!!!

21/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened huge gap on strong global cues and remained sideways until afternoon and made a days high of 4504 and gave up its upmove by strong selling @ final hours. Auto , Infra , Bank stocks was major movers yesterday . Chinese markets where positive yesterday which led markets rally globally. Some Positive news came about monsoon takes investor community some hope. FII's still on Sell side and they are reducing their sell position .

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-438 cr) ::: DII (+489 cr)

• Nifty ended in premium of 2.60 vs 8.05 discount cost of carry increased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ 1 vs o.97
• 4300 PE and 4500 CE added more Open Interest
• India Vix closed @ 36.83 vs 40.21 with decrease 8.41% change suggest market in stable
• US & Europe markets closed positive

Technical View ::

Nifty done Positive divergence Target which we mentioned yesterday and made a high of 4504. Shorts will get covered once it close above 4515. Markets in neutral position positionally. It need to close below 4380 or 4520. As mentioned yesterday markets will be range bound in distribution phase.Shorts getting covered. So today nifty on downside breaking 4440 will give 4422/4385 and upside breaking 4467 will give 4497/4515. Market likely to open Gap down.Bearish divergence spotted in nifty 5 minutes. still its clueless market with low volumes. 4350 acting solid support.

Levels ::

Nifty fut Supp @ 4420 :: Res @ 4491

4441 - 4458 - 4470 - 4492

Bearish > 4467 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

Sarapoly
Viseshinfo
Zylog (1 month)

Happy trading !!!

20/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty opened flat yesterday and remained positive for few hours then strong sell off came which we mentioned in yesterday's column. China tumbled yesterday nearly 4 % down on valuation and liquidity concern.Telecom and Infra sector was ok yesterday. FII's on net sell while domestic players on buy side last one week.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-622 cr) ::: DII (+84 cr)

• Nifty ended in discount of 8.05 vs 4.35 discount cost of carry decreased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ o.97 vs 0.98
• 4300 PE and 4500 Ce added more Open Interest
• India Vix closed @ 40.21 vs 45.04 with decrease 10.72% change suggest market in stable
• Except Index futures FII's where net buyers in all counters
• US closed positive & Europe closed flat positive

Technical view ::

Nifty done our target 4380 yesterday with strong selloff as predicted in yesterday's column. So what to expect today? Nifty made bullish divergence on hourly chart with target of 4460. Nifty again closed above 4365 support zone. As markets is in distribution we will see lower low in coming days with some pull backs on upside. Nifty making head and shoulder pattern in hourly charts with neck line @ 4334.Key levels to watch for 4323 and 4223 in nifty future. Today it will be a volatile day.Market will range bound until smart money comes into play.


Levels ::

Nifty Fut supp @ 4314 :: Res @ 4457

4350 - 4385 - 4413 - 4437

Bearish > 4405 < Bullish

Happy Trading !!!!

19/08/09 - Market cues & calls

Nifty recovered after Monday's fall due to short covering again.Buying seen in heavy weight stocks at lower levels which helped index to move higher yesterday.Advance/Decline ratio was good yesterday. Though Reliance not supported the Index at higher levels.Technology and Sugar sector did well yesterday.Government keen on RIL - RNRL dispute.FII's again net sellers for third day while DII's Investing at this level.As mentioned in yesterday's column Dollar bottoming out will make out flow FII's money.

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY :: FII (-772 cr) ::: DII (+467 cr)

• Nifty ended in discount of 4.35 vs 15.30 discount cost of carry decreased.
• Nifty Put Call Ratio Open Interest @ o.98 vs 0.93
• 4300 PE and 4700 Ce added more Open Interest
• India Vix closed @ 45.04 vs 46.49 with decrease 3.12% change suggest market in stable
• US house sales down by 1% and CPI was unchanged for month of July 2009
• US/Europe markets ended positive

Technical view ::

As expected Nifty came to 4435 which we mentioned in yesterday's column and rallied above that for high of 4495.Today I am expecting market to open flat and trade positive until afternoon after that sell off can come which will lead to 4380 mark. For me yesterday's run are technical pullbacks on upside. 4365 giving solid support once close below that will take markets to 4300 and 4215 levels. Old Fibo levels will come into play.Still markets on bearish side, Positional traders can look for OTM options in September series. Markets are in distribution phase. Only smart money can take market higher high. Until that it will be range bound with negative bias.

Levels ::

Nifty Fut Supp @ 4380 :: Res @ 4528

4417 - 4442 - 4466 - 4491

Bearish > 4460 < Bullish

Positional Picks ::

NBventure
Uflex
varun Indutries

Happy Trading !!!!